Possible confounding variable: people who don’t think they can tell the difference might be less likely to do the test. I remember Brienne doing something similar on facebook. I read a couple of entries, spent a while agonizing about whether I thought they were slightly more likely to be genuine or fake, got bored/frustrated and gave up.
One thing that surprised me when looking at the data, is it appears that omnivores did slightly better at getting the answers ‘right’ (as determined by a simple greater or less than 50% comparison). I would have thought the vegetarians would do better, as they would be more familiar with the in-group terminology. That said, I have no clue if the numbers are even significant given the size of the group, so I wouldn’t read too much into it. (Apologize in advance for awful formatting)
You’re right, but I’m pretty confident that the difference isn’t significant. We should probably see it as evidence that rationalists omnivores are about as capable as rationalist vegetarians.
If we look at average percent of positive predictions (predictions that earn more than 0 points):
Omnivores: 51%
Vegetarians: 46%
If we look at non-negative predictions (counting 50% predictions):
This is a very good point, and I ought to have mentioned it in the post. The point remains about overconfidence, however. Those who did decide to try (even given that it was hard) didn’t have the mental red-flag that perhaps their best try should be saying “I don’t know” with or without walking away.
Possible confounding variable: people who don’t think they can tell the difference might be less likely to do the test. I remember Brienne doing something similar on facebook. I read a couple of entries, spent a while agonizing about whether I thought they were slightly more likely to be genuine or fake, got bored/frustrated and gave up.
One thing that surprised me when looking at the data, is it appears that omnivores did slightly better at getting the answers ‘right’ (as determined by a simple greater or less than 50% comparison). I would have thought the vegetarians would do better, as they would be more familiar with the in-group terminology. That said, I have no clue if the numbers are even significant given the size of the group, so I wouldn’t read too much into it. (Apologize in advance for awful formatting)
You’re right, but I’m pretty confident that the difference isn’t significant. We should probably see it as evidence that rationalists omnivores are about as capable as rationalist vegetarians.
If we look at average percent of positive predictions (predictions that earn more than 0 points):
Omnivores: 51%
Vegetarians: 46%
If we look at non-negative predictions (counting 50% predictions):
Omnivores: 52%
Vegetarians: 49%
This is a very good point, and I ought to have mentioned it in the post. The point remains about overconfidence, however. Those who did decide to try (even given that it was hard) didn’t have the mental red-flag that perhaps their best try should be saying “I don’t know” with or without walking away.