The only thing I said about timelines in this particular post is “I for one expect such AI in my lifetime…” (i.e., [checks actuarial tables] AGI before 2060ish). No I don’t want to bet on that, for obvious reasons, e.g. I would need to tie up money in escrow until after I’m dead, or else you would have to try to collect from my next-of-kin.
Elsewhere I recently wrote that I expect AGI in ‘5–25 years. …Or maybe less than 5, who knows. …Or maybe more than 25, who knows’. I stand by “AGI between zero and infinity years” with very high confidence, but we can’t bet on that either. :-P
And I can’t bet on “what they supposedly imply” because if my beliefs about AGI are right, then I expect we’ll both be much too dead for a bet to pay out in my favor.
And I can’t bet on “what they supposedly imply” because if my beliefs about AGI are right, then I expect we’ll both be much too dead for a bet to pay out in my favor.
I could pay you in advance as I did with Greg Colbourn, although this would only work for relatively short timelines. Otherwise, I had better keep my money invested.
Hi Steven. Would you like to bet on short AI timelines, or what they supposedly imply?
The only thing I said about timelines in this particular post is “I for one expect such AI in my lifetime…” (i.e., [checks actuarial tables] AGI before 2060ish). No I don’t want to bet on that, for obvious reasons, e.g. I would need to tie up money in escrow until after I’m dead, or else you would have to try to collect from my next-of-kin.
Elsewhere I recently wrote that I expect AGI in ‘5–25 years. …Or maybe less than 5, who knows. …Or maybe more than 25, who knows’. I stand by “AGI between zero and infinity years” with very high confidence, but we can’t bet on that either. :-P
And I can’t bet on “what they supposedly imply” because if my beliefs about AGI are right, then I expect we’ll both be much too dead for a bet to pay out in my favor.
I could pay you in advance as I did with Greg Colbourn, although this would only work for relatively short timelines. Otherwise, I had better keep my money invested.