While we’re on the topic: today I closed up a batch of predictions on the success of the 2012 Haskell Summer of Code projects: http://www.gwern.net/Haskell%20Summer%20of%20Code#results-2 I didn’t do very well, since I got bushwhacked by 2 hard-to-predict failures and a disappointment from someone I didn’t expect to disappoint me.
Previous:
2010
2011
2012
Feel free to use http://predictionbook.com/happenstance ; for quick gratification, make predictions using http://predictionbook.com/predictions/future (My own prediction are all at http://predictionbook.com/users/gwern )
2 large collections of predictions for those interested in the specific topics:
Methods of Rationality
Neon Genesis Evangelion
On the benefits of predicting, and heuristics/tips/advice: http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets#predictionbook-nights
While we’re on the topic: today I closed up a batch of predictions on the success of the 2012 Haskell Summer of Code projects: http://www.gwern.net/Haskell%20Summer%20of%20Code#results-2 I didn’t do very well, since I got bushwhacked by 2 hard-to-predict failures and a disappointment from someone I didn’t expect to disappoint me.