I think it depends a lot on how you say it. Saying AGI might be out of our control in 2.5 years wouldn’t sound crazy to most folks if you spoke mildly and made clear that you’re not saying it’s likely.
But also: why would you mention that if you’re talking to someone who hasn’t thought about AI dangers much at all? If you jump in with claims that sound extreme to them rather than more modest ones like “AI could be dangerous once if it becomes smarter and more agentic than us”, it’s likely to not even produce much of an actual exchange of ideas.
Communicating across different worldviews is tricky when you’re not dealing with rationalists who practice and value those types of exchanges. Sounding crazy is shockingly easy, and it’s not really accomplishing anything. Conservatives sound crazy to liberals and vice-versa, and people typically stop listening as soon as they think “this person sounds crazy”. So the wider gap is even harder to bridge.
I mean saying that I don’t find https://ai-2027.com/ unreasonable can sound crazy, but I think I should say this regardless.
But I framed the thing the way I did to also get feedback, so feedback is good!
I think it depends a lot on how you say it. Saying AGI might be out of our control in 2.5 years wouldn’t sound crazy to most folks if you spoke mildly and made clear that you’re not saying it’s likely.
But also: why would you mention that if you’re talking to someone who hasn’t thought about AI dangers much at all? If you jump in with claims that sound extreme to them rather than more modest ones like “AI could be dangerous once if it becomes smarter and more agentic than us”, it’s likely to not even produce much of an actual exchange of ideas.
Communicating across different worldviews is tricky when you’re not dealing with rationalists who practice and value those types of exchanges. Sounding crazy is shockingly easy, and it’s not really accomplishing anything. Conservatives sound crazy to liberals and vice-versa, and people typically stop listening as soon as they think “this person sounds crazy”. So the wider gap is even harder to bridge.