every non-rationalist suddenly turns into a perfect Bayesian reasoning machine or goes broke trying
I’m unconvinced (even making allowances for the fact that you’re probably exaggerating for vividity). I can think of plenty of things I’ve done or failed to do whose expected impact on my career (whether considered solely as a source of income, or considering the other things about it that I care about) has been negative. Akrasia, short-sightedness, lack of imagination, plain old stupidity, etc., don’t go away just because there’s a pile of money on the line; not for me, anyway. Do you have evidence that the rest of the world does much better?
I’m unconvinced (even making allowances for the fact that you’re probably exaggerating for vividity). I can think of plenty of things I’ve done or failed to do whose expected impact on my career (whether considered solely as a source of income, or considering the other things about it that I care about) has been negative. Akrasia, short-sightedness, lack of imagination, plain old stupidity, etc., don’t go away just because there’s a pile of money on the line; not for me, anyway. Do you have evidence that the rest of the world does much better?