It’s not because of our lack of knowledge that we can’t exceed conventional wisdom, but that the conventional wisdom is so far advanced when it comes to making money.
Morality, the meaning of life, possible extinction of the human race… all of these are trivial concerns. But when you put a million dollars on the line, every non-rationalist suddenly turns into a perfect Bayesian reasoning machine or goes broke trying.
A take it as nice metaphor (therefore an upvote), but of course not literally true.
For some people “million dollars” will always be in a far mode, so they can speak about it, but will not take one step to realistically increase the probability of having that money. Some of the rest will for a moment bring it to a near mode (usually when speaking with a “financial advisor” or MLM recruiter), just to do the unreasonable thing that the advisor recommended them.
Your description is true only for a small minority of people… although it is probably much larger than a group of people who put similar energy and rationality into existential risk etc.
every non-rationalist suddenly turns into a perfect Bayesian reasoning machine or goes broke trying
I’m unconvinced (even making allowances for the fact that you’re probably exaggerating for vividity). I can think of plenty of things I’ve done or failed to do whose expected impact on my career (whether considered solely as a source of income, or considering the other things about it that I care about) has been negative. Akrasia, short-sightedness, lack of imagination, plain old stupidity, etc., don’t go away just because there’s a pile of money on the line; not for me, anyway. Do you have evidence that the rest of the world does much better?
It’s not because of our lack of knowledge that we can’t exceed conventional wisdom, but that the conventional wisdom is so far advanced when it comes to making money.
Morality, the meaning of life, possible extinction of the human race… all of these are trivial concerns. But when you put a million dollars on the line, every non-rationalist suddenly turns into a perfect Bayesian reasoning machine or goes broke trying.
A take it as nice metaphor (therefore an upvote), but of course not literally true.
For some people “million dollars” will always be in a far mode, so they can speak about it, but will not take one step to realistically increase the probability of having that money. Some of the rest will for a moment bring it to a near mode (usually when speaking with a “financial advisor” or MLM recruiter), just to do the unreasonable thing that the advisor recommended them.
Your description is true only for a small minority of people… although it is probably much larger than a group of people who put similar energy and rationality into existential risk etc.
I’m unconvinced (even making allowances for the fact that you’re probably exaggerating for vividity). I can think of plenty of things I’ve done or failed to do whose expected impact on my career (whether considered solely as a source of income, or considering the other things about it that I care about) has been negative. Akrasia, short-sightedness, lack of imagination, plain old stupidity, etc., don’t go away just because there’s a pile of money on the line; not for me, anyway. Do you have evidence that the rest of the world does much better?