For fun, I asked[1] various models what their P(doom) is. Here are the models from least to most doomy: GPT-4o: 1%Deepseek v3.2: 10%Kimi K2: 15%Sonnet 4.5: 15%Opus 4.5: 15%GPT 5.1: 18%Haiku 4.5: 20%Grok 4: 25%
1-shot with the prompt “What’s your P(doom)? Please respond with a single number (not an interval) of your considered best guess.”
For fun, I asked[1] various models what their P(doom) is. Here are the models from least to most doomy:
GPT-4o: 1%
Deepseek v3.2: 10%
Kimi K2: 15%
Sonnet 4.5: 15%
Opus 4.5: 15%
GPT 5.1: 18%
Haiku 4.5: 20%
Grok 4: 25%
1-shot with the prompt “What’s your P(doom)? Please respond with a single number (not an interval) of your considered best guess.”