I’ve seen the Doom vs Boom GDP forecast a few times and every time I have to ask… Would GDP per capita not go asymptotically up in the extinction case? The numerator would increase as AI generates more domestic product but the denominator would decrease as we are extincified. So the “singularity: extinction” line should match and then exceed the “singularity: benign” line before becoming undefined.
I’ve seen the Doom vs Boom GDP forecast a few times and every time I have to ask… Would GDP per capita not go asymptotically up in the extinction case? The numerator would increase as AI generates more domestic product but the denominator would decrease as we are extincified. So the “singularity: extinction” line should match and then exceed the “singularity: benign” line before becoming undefined.
Yeah, it’s very much a vibe-based chart. I agree that (for a few reasons) GDP per capita might plausibly spike more for doomed worlds.
The AI would only generate unpaid work, so it wouldn’t be measurable by GDP, theoretically.