I (AI 2027 co-author) mostly agree (haven’t run this by any other authors).
I agree regarding the GPT-5 release being something to pay attention to.
Whenever I put specific metrics in the text it was supposed to refer to the end of the time period (so “mid 2025” would be end of August since that’s that’s 2⁄3 through the year), but I never made that clear anywhere, my bad and I think the middle of the period is a natural interpretation as well. You can see that on the side panel on the right the date starts at Aug 2025.
But either way, waiting until the end of Aug probably won’t change the directional update.
What these results do provide is evidence that, indeed, the suggested AI 2027 timelines are unlikely to be met; this should perhaps nudge us towards slightly longer timelines.
I agree that these results should nudge us toward slightly longer timelines, I think bolding that AI 2027 timelines are unlikely to be met seems like it’s taking too much from these few early data points if you’re implying that these play a big factor in that conclusion (though I might agreed with your assessment even before these data points depending on what you mean by unlikely).
As you allude to, the AI 2027 teams’ current median timelines are all longer than 2027 to varying extents (roughly, 2028-2033). We’re currently working on an update to our teams’ timelines forecasts and will share an update on our views soon.
If the consensus is that the original timeline was too aggressive, another idea for community effort is rewriting the original plot with a longer-term horizon, say an “AI 2030” narrative, which will be published here and then analyzed in real-time, month by month.
We’re in the early stage of working on something like this. It wouldn’t be just the original plot then stretched out, it would be our best guess predictions conditional on longer timelines.
I (AI 2027 co-author) mostly agree (haven’t run this by any other authors).
I agree regarding the GPT-5 release being something to pay attention to.
Whenever I put specific metrics in the text it was supposed to refer to the end of the time period (so “mid 2025” would be end of August since that’s that’s 2⁄3 through the year), but I never made that clear anywhere, my bad and I think the middle of the period is a natural interpretation as well. You can see that on the side panel on the right the date starts at Aug 2025.
But either way, waiting until the end of Aug probably won’t change the directional update.
I agree that these results should nudge us toward slightly longer timelines, I think bolding that AI 2027 timelines are unlikely to be met seems like it’s taking too much from these few early data points if you’re implying that these play a big factor in that conclusion (though I might agreed with your assessment even before these data points depending on what you mean by unlikely).
As you allude to, the AI 2027 teams’ current median timelines are all longer than 2027 to varying extents (roughly, 2028-2033). We’re currently working on an update to our teams’ timelines forecasts and will share an update on our views soon.
We’re in the early stage of working on something like this. It wouldn’t be just the original plot then stretched out, it would be our best guess predictions conditional on longer timelines.