4 because that’s what you think is fair for you to get
4 should be there not because it’s what Cameron thinks is fair but because it’s what they’re offering.
Cameron opens and closes their mouth a few times. They say “3 then.” But they’re not happy about it.
That’s only the right thing to do if Camerons know that the fair split is actually 3:3 (it’s unclear why they’d be unhappy about it if they think it’s fair: are they unhappy because they were interacting with someone who couldn’t be convinced to give up some of the cows?). If Cameron thinks the fair split is 4, they are supposed to still offer 2:4. (They could also offer 3:3 with a bit under 2⁄3 chance and walk away otherwise, but they don’t need to do it here.)
Maybe Cameron is a CDT agent, though, in which case they’re unhappy about the unfair split but can’t do anything about it. In that case, the right course of action for Bryer would be to say that they’re going to accept splits with a probability of 1/(6-offered), so that Cameron offers 5 and gets 1.[1]
If they’re allowed to do more than that, you could also say that you will reject any offer unless the procedure that Cameron employs is offering 6 99.99999% of the time and offering 5 the rest of the time.
It’s hard being a CDT agent. You are often not happy about what you do.
The calculation is just based what C gets if their offer is accepted, and on what B thinks is fair; it doesn’t matter if the split is fair according to C, it’s just in the calculation B does so that the expected payout of C is not higher than what’s fair according to B due to them offering this split. If C thought that the fair split is 5:1, but offered an C!unfair (unfair-according-to-C) split of 4:2, B does the same calculation; the goal is to make C get a bit less than 3 in expectation in all B!unfair splits, because the B!fair split is 3:3
The high-level purpose is that this enables people with different notions of fairness to mutually cooperate almost always; and if you do this procedure, you incentivize fair-according-to-you splits. Others don’t have to do what you think is fair; and even if they offer what you consider unfair, you’ll often accept (you just need to reject enough for it you!unfair splits to not be worth offering just for the purpose of exploiting you, as it won’t work).
That’s only the right thing to do if Camerons know that the fair split is actually 3:3 (it’s unclear why they’d be unhappy about it if they think it’s fair: are they unhappy because they were interacting with someone who couldn’t be convinced to give up some of the cows?). If Cameron thinks the fair split is 4, they are supposed to still offer 2:4. (They could also offer 3:3 with a bit under 2⁄3 chance and walk away otherwise, but they don’t need to do it here.)
In these stories, the Cs are not aiming at a fair split (or to the extent they are, it’s more of an “all’s fair in love, war, and spherical cow negotiations” kind of fair.) They are aiming at getting as many cows as they can. This is not stated explicitly and I do think there’s a valid reading of the text where the Cs are just really badly calibrated on what’s fair, but in my head I was writing it with a mind to “okay, what’s some really annoying low hanging fruit for aggressive negotiation tactics?” Cameron is written as unhappy because in the author’s head, their attempts to get some ‘free’ extra cows failed.
Depending on context, I don’t think the Cs are doing something morally wrong- if I go to buy a used car from a dealer, I expect them to try this kind of thing on me and I’ll do it right back to them if I can. If I’m negotiating salary with a standard corporation, I expect them to try this kind of thing on me and I’ll to it to them too. But it’s not behavior I want from people on my team within the team.
:)
A couple of notes:
4 should be there not because it’s what Cameron thinks is fair but because it’s what they’re offering.
That’s only the right thing to do if Camerons know that the fair split is actually 3:3 (it’s unclear why they’d be unhappy about it if they think it’s fair: are they unhappy because they were interacting with someone who couldn’t be convinced to give up some of the cows?). If Cameron thinks the fair split is 4, they are supposed to still offer 2:4. (They could also offer 3:3 with a bit under 2⁄3 chance and walk away otherwise, but they don’t need to do it here.)
Maybe Cameron is a CDT agent, though, in which case they’re unhappy about the unfair split but can’t do anything about it. In that case, the right course of action for Bryer would be to say that they’re going to accept splits with a probability of 1/(6-offered), so that Cameron offers 5 and gets 1.[1]
If they’re allowed to do more than that, you could also say that you will reject any offer unless the procedure that Cameron employs is offering 6 99.99999% of the time and offering 5 the rest of the time.
It’s hard being a CDT agent. You are often not happy about what you do.
How about “4 because that’s what you say is fair for you to get”? Cameron isn’t offering 4 to Bryer, it’s a 2:4 split with 4 to Cameron.
(I want to make sure I get this part right, and appreciate the edit pass!)
The calculation is just based what C gets if their offer is accepted, and on what B thinks is fair; it doesn’t matter if the split is fair according to C, it’s just in the calculation B does so that the expected payout of C is not higher than what’s fair according to B due to them offering this split. If C thought that the fair split is 5:1, but offered an C!unfair (unfair-according-to-C) split of 4:2, B does the same calculation; the goal is to make C get a bit less than 3 in expectation in all B!unfair splits, because the B!fair split is 3:3
The high-level purpose is that this enables people with different notions of fairness to mutually cooperate almost always; and if you do this procedure, you incentivize fair-according-to-you splits. Others don’t have to do what you think is fair; and even if they offer what you consider unfair, you’ll often accept (you just need to reject enough for it you!unfair splits to not be worth offering just for the purpose of exploiting you, as it won’t work).
In these stories, the Cs are not aiming at a fair split (or to the extent they are, it’s more of an “all’s fair in love, war, and spherical cow negotiations” kind of fair.) They are aiming at getting as many cows as they can. This is not stated explicitly and I do think there’s a valid reading of the text where the Cs are just really badly calibrated on what’s fair, but in my head I was writing it with a mind to “okay, what’s some really annoying low hanging fruit for aggressive negotiation tactics?” Cameron is written as unhappy because in the author’s head, their attempts to get some ‘free’ extra cows failed.
Depending on context, I don’t think the Cs are doing something morally wrong- if I go to buy a used car from a dealer, I expect them to try this kind of thing on me and I’ll do it right back to them if I can. If I’m negotiating salary with a standard corporation, I expect them to try this kind of thing on me and I’ll to it to them too. But it’s not behavior I want from people on my team within the team.