UDT says that what we normally think of as different approaches to anthropic reasoning are really different preferences, which seems to sidestep the problem. But is that actually right, and if so where are these preferences supposed to come from?
What are the main reasons to think that it’s wrong?
I’m not aware of good reasons to think that it’s wrong, it’s more that I’m just not sure it’s the right approach. I mean we can say that it’s a matter of preferences, problem solved, but unless we can also show that we should be anti-realist about these preferences, or what the right preferences are, the problem isn’t really solved. Until we do have a definitive full solution, it seems hard to be confident that any particular approach is the right one.
It seems plausible that treating anthropic reasoning as a matter of preferences makes it harder to fully solve the problem. I wrote “In general, Updateless Decision Theory converts anthropic reasoning problems into ethical problems.” in the linked post, but we don’t have a great track record of solving ethical problems...
What are the main reasons to think that it’s wrong?
I’m not aware of good reasons to think that it’s wrong, it’s more that I’m just not sure it’s the right approach. I mean we can say that it’s a matter of preferences, problem solved, but unless we can also show that we should be anti-realist about these preferences, or what the right preferences are, the problem isn’t really solved. Until we do have a definitive full solution, it seems hard to be confident that any particular approach is the right one.
It seems plausible that treating anthropic reasoning as a matter of preferences makes it harder to fully solve the problem. I wrote “In general, Updateless Decision Theory converts anthropic reasoning problems into ethical problems.” in the linked post, but we don’t have a great track record of solving ethical problems...