No, if you learn first that X is being claimed, then you learn that many people claim it for stupid reasons, then after learning the second fact your confidence in X goes down, as in this example:
learning that many people believed in an Australian-Zulu connection for religious reasons decreases my probability that the posited Australian-Zulu connection is real.
There’s no violation of confirmation of evidence: not learning today that a particular religious tribe believe in an Australian-Zulu connection increases my confidence in the proposition by a tiny amount, just as Barack Obama not walking through the door right now decreases my confidence in his existence.
Barack Obama not walking through the door right now decreases my confidence in his existence.
He’s insanely unlikely to walk through my door, but if after all the evidence he manages to not actually exist, the world must be working in a very strange way, in which case it might be the case that his probability of (apparently) walking through my door is greater. Am I missing a simple argument?
You’re making a case that I should have less confidence in Obama’s existence as a result of his walking through the door? I can see where you’re going with it :-)
No, if you learn first that X is being claimed, then you learn that many people claim it for stupid reasons, then after learning the second fact your confidence in X goes down, as in this example:
There’s no violation of confirmation of evidence: not learning today that a particular religious tribe believe in an Australian-Zulu connection increases my confidence in the proposition by a tiny amount, just as Barack Obama not walking through the door right now decreases my confidence in his existence.
He’s insanely unlikely to walk through my door, but if after all the evidence he manages to not actually exist, the world must be working in a very strange way, in which case it might be the case that his probability of (apparently) walking through my door is greater. Am I missing a simple argument?
You’re making a case that I should have less confidence in Obama’s existence as a result of his walking through the door? I can see where you’re going with it :-)