As a follow-on I would ask you: what is the mechanism for this “irrelevance” and why does it not appear in your scenario? In your scenario we are meant to be terrified of early 2028-frontier models going rogue, but by early 2029 (based on a one-year lag) models with those same capabilities would be in the hands of the general public and widely deployed (presumably many with no guardrails at all, or even overtly dangerous goals). And yet in your scenario there is no military first strike on the owners of these open models by OpenBrain, or again, even mention of these open models at all.
We had very limited space. I think realistically in the Race ending they would be doing first strikes on various rivals, both terrorist groups and other companies, insofar as those groups seemed to be a real threat, which most of them wouldn’t be and probably all of them wouldn’t be. It didn’t seem worth talking about.
As a follow-on I would ask you: what is the mechanism for this “irrelevance” and why does it not appear in your scenario? In your scenario we are meant to be terrified of early 2028-frontier models going rogue, but by early 2029 (based on a one-year lag) models with those same capabilities would be in the hands of the general public and widely deployed (presumably many with no guardrails at all, or even overtly dangerous goals). And yet in your scenario there is no military first strike on the owners of these open models by OpenBrain, or again, even mention of these open models at all.
We had very limited space. I think realistically in the Race ending they would be doing first strikes on various rivals, both terrorist groups and other companies, insofar as those groups seemed to be a real threat, which most of them wouldn’t be and probably all of them wouldn’t be. It didn’t seem worth talking about.