We didn’t talk about this much, but we did think about it a little bit. I’m not confident. But my take is that yeah, maybe in 2028 some minor lab somewhere releases an open-weights equivalent of the Feb 2027 model (this is not at all guaranteed btw, given what else is going on at the time, and given the obvious risks of doing so!) but at that point things are just moving very quickly. There’s an army of superintelligences being deployed aggressively into the economy and military. Any terrorist group building a bioweapon using this open-weights model would probably be discovered and shut down, as the surveillance abilities of the army of superintelligences (especially once they get access to US intelligence community infrastructure and data) would be unprecedented. And even if some terrorist group did scrape together some mirror life stuff midway through 2028… it wouldn’t even matter that much I think, because mirror life is no longer so threatening at that point. The army of superintelligences would know just what to do to stop it, and if somehow it’s impossible to stop, they would know just what to do to minimize the damage and keep people safe as the biosphere gets wrecked.
Again, not confident in this. I encourage you to write a counter-scenario laying out your vision.
We didn’t talk about this much, but we did think about it a little bit. I’m not confident. But my take is that yeah, maybe in 2028 some minor lab somewhere releases an open-weights equivalent of the Feb 2027 model (this is not at all guaranteed btw, given what else is going on at the time, and given the obvious risks of doing so!) but at that point things are just moving very quickly. There’s an army of superintelligences being deployed aggressively into the economy and military. Any terrorist group building a bioweapon using this open-weights model would probably be discovered and shut down, as the surveillance abilities of the army of superintelligences (especially once they get access to US intelligence community infrastructure and data) would be unprecedented. And even if some terrorist group did scrape together some mirror life stuff midway through 2028… it wouldn’t even matter that much I think, because mirror life is no longer so threatening at that point. The army of superintelligences would know just what to do to stop it, and if somehow it’s impossible to stop, they would know just what to do to minimize the damage and keep people safe as the biosphere gets wrecked.
Again, not confident in this. I encourage you to write a counter-scenario laying out your vision.