Previous discussion of the same (similar?) point:
Futarchy implements evidential decision theory (Caspar Oesterheld, 2017)
Conditional prediction markets are evidential, not causal (philh, 2024)
Futarchy also has some other issues, see e.g.
Futarchy Fix (Abram Demski, 2017)
Issues with Futarchy (Lizka, 2021)
The earliest I’m aware of is the 2015 post I linked at the end. (Though as far as I know, my impossibility theorem for alternate payoff strategies is novel.)
Previous discussion of the same (similar?) point:
Futarchy implements evidential decision theory (Caspar Oesterheld, 2017)
Conditional prediction markets are evidential, not causal (philh, 2024)
Futarchy also has some other issues, see e.g.
Futarchy Fix (Abram Demski, 2017)
Issues with Futarchy (Lizka, 2021)
The earliest I’m aware of is the 2015 post I linked at the end. (Though as far as I know, my impossibility theorem for alternate payoff strategies is novel.)