March 22nd & 23rd: Coronavirus Link Updates
Update: We just launched a new version of our link database. We now have over 350 links categorized in total, and the database is now properly integrated into LessWrong and even works on mobile!
You can find the full database here: https://www.lesswrong.com/coronavirus-link-database
As part of the LessWrong Coronavirus Link Database, Ben, Elizabeth and I are publishing update posts with all the new links we are adding each day that we ranked a 3 or above in our importance rankings. Here are all the top links that we added over the last two days (March 22nd and 23rd), by topic.
Collection of resources to follow specific states, and a spreadsheet of each state’s current, uh, state in regard to C19
Rob Wiblin describes FT’s coverage of C19 as ahead of the curve and worth paying for
(EV): I can’t verify this as I’m not yet paying for FT coverage
Chinese Q&A site discussing Covid.
(RS) Interesting to see general day to day activity and response to international news from the Chinese mainland perspective. Lots of thought provoking questions being discussed.
Columns like “contacts”, “executive orders”, “travel restrictions”
Worldwide map with countries colored by testing per capita, with exact counts in a table
Two approaches to calculating how much the money lost from the economy due to shutdowns could have saved lives
(EV) Starts with the current death count, no projected uncontrolled death count, which is a terrible sign. Leaves out lives saved for non-C19 reasons from shut downs (via e.g. polllution and reduced driving)
22 page doc on the current state of C19 testing and what you need to know to make decisions to increase it
Society for Critical Care Medicine’s newly conducted census of US ICU beds, vents, and other medical resources. Staffing strategies to cope with overload
Virologist/investor explains why people are unnecessarily pessimistic about creating a vaccine for C19.
This is a specification of the minimally (and some preferred options) clinically acceptable ventilator to be used in UK hospitals during the current COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus. It sets out the clinical requirements based on the consensus of what is ‘minimally acceptable’ performance in the opinion of the anaesthesia and intensive care medicine professionals and medical device regulators.
Summarizes all available evidence around chloroquine and finds it worth further study but not particularly established.
US Army plans to create field hospitals out of existing structures (e.g. hotels) and initial action in NY.
FDA specifically ammends rules to bar at-home collection of samples for C19 tests.
(EV) I am so angry about this
Goes through the main predictions, showing how they changes over time.
Progression & Outcome
84% of digestive cases reported anorexia, 29% diarrhea. 3.5% of patients had digestive but no respiratory symptoms
Several doctors anecdotally report a lot of patients presenting with loss of sense of smell (anosmia).
An “Explain it to me like I’m 5” for how lungs should work and how C19 interferes with them.
Layman-accessible description of why C19 is so infectious and so dangerous.
Spread & Prevention
High polish visualization of multiple outcomes (spread, effect of intervention, hospital capacity..) based on inputs configurable by slider
Basic SIR models demonstrate that flattening the curve (by shrinking R0) also shrink the total number of people infected
Estimates C19 prevalence using data from countries that check travelers at the border
In a world where most tests are negative, you could pool samples and test them together to get results for more people
Fairly substantial amount of literature covered by a Human Biology PhD. Key takeaway: “Melatonin appears to reduce exacerbated immune responses by lowering production of pro-inflammatory cytokines including IFN-gamma and IL6 which are responsible for inflammation in the lung and loss of function during ‘cytokine storm’ a feature of COVID19. This is found in both animal studies and in human studies.”
Pre-print says that those with type A blood are more likely to test positive in a hospital (implying hospitalization?) than B or AB, who are in turn more likely than those with type O. All differences were statistically signficant but modest
Pretty thorough article on why C19 is not transmissible through food, and precauations to take around food.
(EV): I am not 100% convinced on this given the digestive symptoms evidence
Work & Donate
Model of when to do the most good with donations to hospitals, given institutional resistance to change
Currently 10 options, some of which are aggregators but some of which I haven’t seen elsewhere.
Oxford PhD student looks for volunteers to find up-to-date testing numbers for all countries
A project recruiting front line healthcare workers to test using hydroxychloroquine as a preventative measure against C19