March 22nd & 23rd: Coronavirus Link Updates

Up­date: We just launched a new ver­sion of our link database. We now have over 350 links cat­e­go­rized in to­tal, and the database is now prop­erly in­te­grated into LessWrong and even works on mo­bile!

You can find the full database here: https://​​www.less­​​coro­n­avirus-link-database

As part of the LessWrong Coron­avirus Link Database, Ben, Eliz­a­beth and I are pub­lish­ing up­date posts with all the new links we are adding each day that we ranked a 3 or above in our im­por­tance rank­ings. Here are all the top links that we added over the last two days (March 22nd and 23rd), by topic.


Sources of state and lo­cal le­gal info (USA)

Col­lec­tion of re­sources to fol­low spe­cific states, and a spread­sheet of each state’s cur­rent, uh, state in re­gard to C19

Fi­nan­cial Times C19 Coverage

Rob Wiblin de­scribes FT’s cov­er­age of C19 as ahead of the curve and worth pay­ing for

(EV): I can’t ver­ify this as I’m not yet pay­ing for FT coverage

Chi­nese lan­guage ver­sion of Quora on COVID

Chi­nese Q&A site dis­cussing Covid.

(RS) In­ter­est­ing to see gen­eral day to day ac­tivity and re­sponse to in­ter­na­tional news from the Chi­nese main­land per­spec­tive. Lots of thought pro­vok­ing ques­tions be­ing dis­cussed.


Cur­rent state of states and lo­cal­ities (USA)

Columns like “con­tacts”, “ex­ec­u­tive or­ders”, “travel re­stric­tions”

Map of tests per cap­ita by country

Wor­ld­wide map with coun­tries col­ored by test­ing per cap­ita, with ex­act counts in a table


Cost of coro­n­avirus reaction

Two ap­proaches to calcu­lat­ing how much the money lost from the econ­omy due to shut­downs could have saved lives

(EV) Starts with the cur­rent death count, no pro­jected un­con­trol­led death count, which is a ter­rible sign. Leaves out lives saved for non-C19 rea­sons from shut downs (via e.g. pol­llu­tion and re­duced driv­ing)

Di­ag­nos­tics briefing

22 page doc on the cur­rent state of C19 test­ing and what you need to know to make de­ci­sions to in­crease it

Med­i­cal System

Cen­sus of USA hos­pi­tal resources

So­ciety for Crit­i­cal Care Medicine’s newly con­ducted cen­sus of US ICU beds, vents, and other med­i­cal re­sources. Staffing strate­gies to cope with overload

Virol­o­gist ex­plains why vac­cine may be possible

Virol­o­gist/​in­vestor ex­plains why peo­ple are un­nec­es­sar­ily pes­simistic about cre­at­ing a vac­cine for C19.

Stan­dards for a min­i­mally ac­cept­able ventilator

This is a speci­fi­ca­tion of the min­i­mally (and some preferred op­tions) clini­cally ac­cept­able ven­tila­tor to be used in UK hos­pi­tals dur­ing the cur­rent COVID-19 pan­demic caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus. It sets out the clini­cal re­quire­ments based on the con­sen­sus of what is ‘min­i­mally ac­cept­able’ perfor­mance in the opinion of the anaes­the­sia and in­ten­sive care medicine pro­fes­sion­als and med­i­cal de­vice reg­u­la­tors.

Re­view of ev­i­dence around chloroquine

Sum­ma­rizes all available ev­i­dence around chloro­quine and finds it worth fur­ther study but not par­tic­u­larly es­tab­lished.

USArmy Eng­ineers have plans for fast cre­ation of new med­i­cal fa­cil­ities, start­ing to act

US Army plans to cre­ate field hos­pi­tals out of ex­ist­ing struc­tures (e.g. ho­tels) and ini­tial ac­tion in NY.

FDA bans at home C19 testing

FDA speci­fi­cally am­mends rules to bar at-home col­lec­tion of sam­ples for C19 tests.

(EV) I am so an­gry about this


Sum­mary of Me­tac­u­lus Covid19 Forecasts

Goes through the main pre­dic­tions, show­ing how they changes over time.

Pro­gres­sion & Outcome

Half of pa­tients re­ported to hos­pi­tal with di­ges­tive is­sues as their chief complaint

84% of di­ges­tive cases re­ported anorexia, 29% di­ar­rhea. 3.5% of pa­tients had di­ges­tive but no res­pi­ra­tory symptoms

Loss of smell an early in­di­ca­tor of C19?

Sev­eral doc­tors anec­do­tally re­port a lot of pa­tients pre­sent­ing with loss of sense of smell (anos­mia).


What does C19 do to your lungs?

An “Ex­plain it to me like I’m 5” for how lungs should work and how C19 in­terferes with them.

Why is C19 so successful

Lay­man-ac­cessible de­scrip­tion of why C19 is so in­fec­tious and so dan­ger­ous.

Spread & Prevention

Model of mul­ti­ple out­comes based on con­figurable inputs

High pol­ish vi­su­al­iza­tion of mul­ti­ple out­comes (spread, effect of in­ter­ven­tion, hos­pi­tal ca­pac­ity..) based on in­puts con­figurable by slider

Flat­ten­ing the curve is shrink­ing the curve

Ba­sic SIR mod­els demon­strate that flat­ten­ing the curve (by shrink­ing R0) also shrink the to­tal num­ber of peo­ple infected

Es­ti­mates prevalence by look­ing at exports

Es­ti­mates C19 prevalence us­ing data from coun­tries that check trav­el­ers at the border

Can we con­serve tests by pool­ing?

In a world where most tests are nega­tive, you could pool sam­ples and test them to­gether to get re­sults for more people

Lit Re­view on Me­la­tonin As Covid Treatment

Fairly sub­stan­tial amount of liter­a­ture cov­ered by a Hu­man Biol­ogy PhD. Key take­away: “Me­la­tonin ap­pears to re­duce ex­ac­er­bated im­mune re­sponses by low­er­ing pro­duc­tion of pro-in­flam­ma­tory cy­tokines in­clud­ing IFN-gamma and IL6 which are re­spon­si­ble for in­flam­ma­tion in the lung and loss of func­tion dur­ing ‘cy­tokine storm’ a fea­ture of COVID19. This is found in both an­i­mal stud­ies and in hu­man stud­ies.”

Type A blood es­pe­cially sus­cep­ti­ble to C19?

Pre-print says that those with type A blood are more likely to test pos­i­tive in a hos­pi­tal (im­ply­ing hos­pi­tal­iza­tion?) than B or AB, who are in turn more likely than those with type O. All differ­ences were statis­ti­cally sign­fi­cant but modest

Chef claims restau­rant food is safe

Pretty thor­ough ar­ti­cle on why C19 is not trans­mis­si­ble through food, and pre­cau­a­tions to take around food.

(EV): I am not 100% con­vinced on this given the di­ges­tive symp­toms evidence

Work & Donate

When do donate PPE to hos­pi­tals?

Model of when to do the most good with dona­tions to hos­pi­tals, given in­sti­tu­tional re­sis­tance to change

Pos­si­ble dona­tion targets

Cur­rently 10 op­tions, some of which are ag­gre­ga­tors but some of which I haven’t seen el­se­where.

Re­quest for vol­un­teers to find lo­cal test­ing data

Oxford PhD stu­dent looks for vol­un­teers to find up-to-date test­ing num­bers for all countries

Pro­phy­lac­tic hy­drox­y­chloro­quine trial for medics

A pro­ject re­cruit­ing front line health­care work­ers to test us­ing hy­drox­y­chloro­quine as a pre­ven­ta­tive mea­sure against C19

Link to Full Database

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