I’m pretty sure that p(doom) is much more load-bearing for this community than policymakers generally. And frankly, I’m like this close to commissioning a poll of US national security officials where we straight up ask “at percent X of total human extinction would you support measures A, B, C, D, etc.”
I strongly, strongly, strongly suspect based on general DC pattern recognition that if the US government genuinely belived that the AI companies had a 25% chance of killing us all, FBI agents would rain out of the sky like a hot summer thunderstorm, sudden, brilliant, and devastating.
What would it take for you to commission such a poll? If it’s funding, please post about how much funding would be required; I might be able to arrange it. If it’s something else… well, I still would really like this poll to happen, and so would many others (I reckon). This is a brilliant idea that had never occurred to me.
The big challenge here is getting national security officials to respond to your survey! Probably easier with former officials, but unclear how much that’s predictive of current officials’ beliefs.
I’m pretty sure that p(doom) is much more load-bearing for this community than policymakers generally. And frankly, I’m like this close to commissioning a poll of US national security officials where we straight up ask “at percent X of total human extinction would you support measures A, B, C, D, etc.”
I strongly, strongly, strongly suspect based on general DC pattern recognition that if the US government genuinely belived that the AI companies had a 25% chance of killing us all, FBI agents would rain out of the sky like a hot summer thunderstorm, sudden, brilliant, and devastating.
What would it take for you to commission such a poll? If it’s funding, please post about how much funding would be required; I might be able to arrange it. If it’s something else… well, I still would really like this poll to happen, and so would many others (I reckon). This is a brilliant idea that had never occurred to me.
The big challenge here is getting national security officials to respond to your survey! Probably easier with former officials, but unclear how much that’s predictive of current officials’ beliefs.
Hmm. I know nothing about nothing, and you’ve probably checked this already, so this comment is probably zero-value-added, but according to Da Machine, it sounds like the challenges are surmountable: https://chatgpt.com/share/e/68d55fd5-31b0-8006-aec9-55ae8257ed68