That seems like an understandable position to have – one of the things that sucks about the situation is I do think it’s just kinda reasonable from the outside to trigger some kind of immune reaction.
But from my perspective it’s “The evidence just says pretty clearly we are pretty doomed”, and the people who disagree seem to be pretty consistently be sliding off in weird ways or responding to something about vibes rather than engaging with the arguments.
(This is compounded by people who disagree also often picking up on a vibe from some doomy people I agree is sus, one variant of which is pointed at in Val’s Here’s the exit).
I do think it sucks that it’s hard to tell how much of this is the sort of failure mode that la3orn piece is pointing at, vs Epistemic Slipperiness, vs just “it’s actually a fairly complex argument but relatively straightforward once you deal with the complexity.”
That seems like an understandable position to have – one of the things that sucks about the situation is I do think it’s just kinda reasonable from the outside to trigger some kind of immune reaction.
But from my perspective it’s “The evidence just says pretty clearly we are pretty doomed”, and the people who disagree seem to be pretty consistently be sliding off in weird ways or responding to something about vibes rather than engaging with the arguments.
(This is compounded by people who disagree also often picking up on a vibe from some doomy people I agree is sus, one variant of which is pointed at in Val’s Here’s the exit).
I do think it sucks that it’s hard to tell how much of this is the sort of failure mode that la3orn piece is pointing at, vs Epistemic Slipperiness, vs just “it’s actually a fairly complex argument but relatively straightforward once you deal with the complexity.”