In the best envisaged 500GW-days/tonne fast breeder reactor cycles 1kg of Uranium can yield about $500k of (cheap) $40/MWh electricity.
Cost for sea water extraction (done using ion-selective absorbing fiber mats in ocean currents) of Uranium is currently estimated (using demonstrated tech) to be less than $1000/kg, not yet competitive with conventional mining, but is anticipated to drop closer to $100/kg which would be. That is a trivial fraction of power production costs. It is even now viable with hugely wasteful pressurised water uranium cycles and long term with fast reactor cycles there is no question as to its economic viability. It could likely power human civilisation for billions of years with replenishment from rock erosion.
A key problem for nuclear build costs is mobility of skilled workforces − 50 years ago skilled workers could be attracted to remote locations to build plants bringing families with them as sole-income families. But nowadays economics and lifestyle preferences make it difficult to find people willing to do that—meaning very high priced fly-in-fly-out itinerant workforces such as are seen in oil industry.
The fix is; coastal nuclear plants, build and decommission in specialist ship yards, floated to operating spot and emplace on sea bed—preferable with seabed depth >140m (ice age minimum). Staff flown or ferried in and out (e-VTOL). (rare) accidents can be dealt with by sea water dilution, and if there is a civilizational cataclysm we don’t get left with a multi-millenia death zone around decaying land-based nuclear reactors.
Goes without saying that we should shift to fast-reactors for efficiency and hugely less long term waste production. To produce 10TW of electricity (enough to provide 1st world living standards to everyone) would take about 10000 tonnes a year of uranium, less than 20% of current uranium mining in 500GW-day/tonne fast reactors.
Waste should be stuck down many km-deep holes on abyssal ocean floors. Dug using oil industry drilling rigs and capped with concrete. There is no flux of water through ocean bed floor, and local water pressures are huge so nothing will ever be released into environment—no chance of any bad impacts ever (aside from volcanism that can be avoided). Permanent perfect solution that requires no monitoring after creation.
Desalination costs are irrelevant to uranium extraction. Uranium is absorbed in special plastic fibers arrayed in ocean currents that are then post processed to recover the uranium—it doesn’t matter how many cubic km of water must pass the fiber mats to deposit the uranium because that process is, like wind, free. The economics have been demonstrated in pilot scale experiments at ~$1000/kg level, easily cheap enough making Uranium an effectively inexhaustible resource at current civilisational energy consumption levels even after we run out of easily mined resources. Lots of published research on this approach (as is to be expected when it is nearing cost competitiveness with mining).
As I wrote in the post, that number is fake, based on an inapplicable calculation.
Maybe you read something about that only being 6x or so as expensive, but whatever number you read is fake. I don’t want to see a comment from you unless you look into how that number was calculated and think real hard about whether it would be the only cost involved.
Fake cost estimates in papers are common for other topics too, like renewable fuels. Also, the volume of published research has little to do with cost competitiveness and a lot to do with what’s trendy among people who direct grant money.
In the best envisaged 500GW-days/tonne fast breeder reactor cycles 1kg of Uranium can yield about $500k of (cheap) $40/MWh electricity.
Cost for sea water extraction (done using ion-selective absorbing fiber mats in ocean currents) of Uranium is currently estimated (using demonstrated tech) to be less than $1000/kg, not yet competitive with conventional mining, but is anticipated to drop closer to $100/kg which would be. That is a trivial fraction of power production costs. It is even now viable with hugely wasteful pressurised water uranium cycles and long term with fast reactor cycles there is no question as to its economic viability. It could likely power human civilisation for billions of years with replenishment from rock erosion.
A key problem for nuclear build costs is mobility of skilled workforces − 50 years ago skilled workers could be attracted to remote locations to build plants bringing families with them as sole-income families. But nowadays economics and lifestyle preferences make it difficult to find people willing to do that—meaning very high priced fly-in-fly-out itinerant workforces such as are seen in oil industry.
The fix is; coastal nuclear plants, build and decommission in specialist ship yards, floated to operating spot and emplace on sea bed—preferable with seabed depth >140m (ice age minimum). Staff flown or ferried in and out (e-VTOL). (rare) accidents can be dealt with by sea water dilution, and if there is a civilizational cataclysm we don’t get left with a multi-millenia death zone around decaying land-based nuclear reactors.
Goes without saying that we should shift to fast-reactors for efficiency and hugely less long term waste production. To produce 10TW of electricity (enough to provide 1st world living standards to everyone) would take about 10000 tonnes a year of uranium, less than 20% of current uranium mining in 500GW-day/tonne fast reactors.
Waste should be stuck down many km-deep holes on abyssal ocean floors. Dug using oil industry drilling rigs and capped with concrete. There is no flux of water through ocean bed floor, and local water pressures are huge so nothing will ever be released into environment—no chance of any bad impacts ever (aside from volcanism that can be avoided). Permanent perfect solution that requires no monitoring after creation.
Uranium in seawater is ~3 ppb.
$1000/kg is ~$0.003/m^3 of seawater, at 100% of uranium captured.
Desalination is ~$0.50/m^3.
Fast breeders are irrelevant for this topic because there is plenty of fuel for them already.
Desalination costs are irrelevant to uranium extraction. Uranium is absorbed in special plastic fibers arrayed in ocean currents that are then post processed to recover the uranium—it doesn’t matter how many cubic km of water must pass the fiber mats to deposit the uranium because that process is, like wind, free. The economics have been demonstrated in pilot scale experiments at ~$1000/kg level, easily cheap enough making Uranium an effectively inexhaustible resource at current civilisational energy consumption levels even after we run out of easily mined resources. Lots of published research on this approach (as is to be expected when it is nearing cost competitiveness with mining).
As I wrote in the post, that number is fake, based on an inapplicable calculation.
Fake cost estimates in papers are common for other topics too, like renewable fuels. Also, the volume of published research has little to do with cost competitiveness and a lot to do with what’s trendy among people who direct grant money.