The Powerwalls are over-provisioned, which is part of why they cost $600+/kWh.
They don’t expect full daily charge-discharge cycles, and were willing to eat the cost of replacements for the fraction of people who did that, hoping for lower battery costs by that point.
The Powerwall 2 warranty is, if charging off anything except exclusively solar, limited to 37800 kWh on a 13.5 kWh battery that’s somewhat overprovisioned. Which is...about 2000 cycles. The warranty promises 70% of nominal capacity by that point. (By that point, resistance would also be quite a bit higher.) Even with those limits, I expect a decent number of replacements under that warranty.
The Powerwalls are over-provisioned, which is part of why they cost $600+/kWh.
They don’t expect full daily charge-discharge cycles, and were willing to eat the cost of replacements for the fraction of people who did that, hoping for lower battery costs by that point.
The Powerwall 2 warranty is, if charging off anything except exclusively solar, limited to 37800 kWh on a 13.5 kWh battery that’s somewhat overprovisioned. Which is...about 2000 cycles. The warranty promises 70% of nominal capacity by that point. (By that point, resistance would also be quite a bit higher.) Even with those limits, I expect a decent number of replacements under that warranty.
The megapack is not a Powerwall. Powerwall uses nca cells. Megapack uses LFP. The cycles you calculated are correct for good nca cells.