Jaynes did point out something about induction which philosophers seem to miss: people perform induction when the data they have gives us information about some sort of physical mechanism that allows us to predict the results of that mechanism. For instance, if I have observed that 50 out of the last 50 times you have flipped a certain coin, it has come up heads, I can conclude that it’s probably a two headed coin, and so I predict that that coin will continue to turn up only heads. If, however, you pick up another quarter, induction suddenly becomes a lot less powerful.
The other point Jaynes makes is that philosophers forget the biggest advantage induction gives us. Imagine this line of reasoning: Falling apples obey Newtonian mechanics. The moon obeys Newtonian mechanics. The earth obeys Newtonian mechanics. Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn all behave Newtonian mechanics. Neptune...does not. Hmm. Maybe there’s another planet? Oh, there’s Pluto. I guess Neptune was obeying Newtonian mechanics. Venus obeys Newtonian mechanics. Mercury...hmm. Mercury should not be moving like that if the Newtonian theory of gravitation is wrong. I guess we should investigate this.
Most scientific advances have come from times where induction fails. When induction works, it means we haven’t learned anything new.
Jaynes did point out something about induction which philosophers seem to miss: people perform induction when the data they have gives us information about some sort of physical mechanism that allows us to predict the results of that mechanism. For instance, if I have observed that 50 out of the last 50 times you have flipped a certain coin, it has come up heads, I can conclude that it’s probably a two headed coin, and so I predict that that coin will continue to turn up only heads. If, however, you pick up another quarter, induction suddenly becomes a lot less powerful.
The other point Jaynes makes is that philosophers forget the biggest advantage induction gives us. Imagine this line of reasoning: Falling apples obey Newtonian mechanics. The moon obeys Newtonian mechanics. The earth obeys Newtonian mechanics. Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn all behave Newtonian mechanics. Neptune...does not. Hmm. Maybe there’s another planet? Oh, there’s Pluto. I guess Neptune was obeying Newtonian mechanics. Venus obeys Newtonian mechanics. Mercury...hmm. Mercury should not be moving like that if the Newtonian theory of gravitation is wrong. I guess we should investigate this.
Most scientific advances have come from times where induction fails. When induction works, it means we haven’t learned anything new.