SETI Predictions

[hippke]

I enjoyed reading through people’s views of the AGI Predictions. I know only a little about AI and a little bit more about SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence), so I decided to make a similar poll.

The First Contact scenario with extraterrestrial intelligence shares certain similarities with the emergence of AGI. In the following, I ask similar questions to those in the AGI post. In addition, I add questions derived from the SETI literature. These are intended to reflect on AGI from a new perspective.

In SETI, it is debated that First Contact can cause great disturbance and change, positive and negative. After all, civilizations which are capable of contacting us across the oceans of time and space are expected to be much more advanced—just like AGI is expected to be “superior” (whatever that means) to baseline humans.

The form of First Contact

Elicit Prediction (Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?)

Elicit Prediction (If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?)

Elicit Prediction (If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI “spaceship” be larger than 1m in size?)

Elicit Prediction (If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?)

Its timeline

Elicit Prediction (We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.)

Elicit Prediction (There be a “SETI Winter” before First Contact.)

Elicit Prediction (We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.)

Elicit Prediction (Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles))

Our response

Elicit Prediction (If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?)

Elicit Prediction (If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?)

Elicit Prediction (If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?)

The consequences

Elicit Prediction (Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?)

Elicit Prediction (Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?)

Elicit Prediction (If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?)

Elicit Prediction (Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?)

Elicit Prediction (If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?)

Elicit Prediction (Will world GDP double within 4 years after receiving a message from outer space?)

Elicit Prediction (Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?)

Elicit Prediction (The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable))

Elicit Prediction (The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance ))

Elicit Prediction (The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) )

Meta Questions

Elicit Prediction (The message begins with “Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow”. Should we execute it?)

Elicit Prediction (Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the “same”? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some “final being”?)

Elicit Prediction (The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).)

Elicit Prediction (We ask ETI “do we live in a simulation”? They answer “yes”.)

And finally, of course:

Elicit Prediction (ETI is AGI)