The question is whether or not Uncle George is worse or better informed then the professional investors. In situation like this I think:
“Would I be the sucker in a poker game if I would sit down at a poker table with the institutional investors who’s day jobs it’s to trade this investment?”
In early February I could have reasonably said:
For most people a pandemic like this is a black swan and that includes the retail investors but it isn’t for me and thus I don’t think I’m going to be the sucker when I go to the poker table.
I think that should be your mental model when doing most trades that aren’t index based.
The question is whether or not Uncle George is worse or better informed then the professional investors. In situation like this I think:
In early February I could have reasonably said:
I think that should be your mental model when doing most trades that aren’t index based.