I think that when it comes to events that have such high societal impact as COVID-19 and that don’t really fall in anyone’s expertise that happen in the future it’s likely that rationalists can lucratively trade on them and pre-run the market. These kinds of event might be once per decade, but when they come along it’s worth trading on them.
As far as domain name picking goes, Wei Dai brought WeiDai.com at a time where US domains did cost money but there Chinese domain names weren’t worth much and sold it years later. The edge isn’t in trading either of that in the current market.
I’m still not exactly sure about whether anomalies can persist in public
In hindsight mispricing of Chinese domain and Crypto exist for years while being public. I think there was maybe 1-2 weeks of mispriced pandemic information in the case of COVID-19 when I take my personal information at the time into account.
In neither of those cases it would have changed much to be public about one’s investment about how long the anomalies persisted.
I think that when it comes to events that have such high societal impact as COVID-19 and that don’t really fall in anyone’s expertise that happen in the future it’s likely that rationalists can lucratively trade on them and pre-run the market. These kinds of event might be once per decade, but when they come along it’s worth trading on them.
As far as domain name picking goes, Wei Dai brought WeiDai.com at a time where US domains did cost money but there Chinese domain names weren’t worth much and sold it years later. The edge isn’t in trading either of that in the current market.
In hindsight mispricing of Chinese domain and Crypto exist for years while being public. I think there was maybe 1-2 weeks of mispriced pandemic information in the case of COVID-19 when I take my personal information at the time into account.
In neither of those cases it would have changed much to be public about one’s investment about how long the anomalies persisted.