I don’t want people to trust me, because I think trust would result in us getting the wrong answer.
I want people to read the words I write, think it through for themselves, and let me know in the comments if I got something wrong.
This is a refreshing conclusion. I’m happy to point out what I think you’re getting wrong, but I have to note that this feels pretty cooperative. Already.
If I’m a Bayesian reasoner honestly reporting my beliefs about some question, and you’re also a Bayesian reasoner honestly reporting your beliefs about the same question, we should converge on the same answer, not because we’re cooperating with each other, but because it is the answer.
I think you’re doing a bit of slight of hand here. If I were to punch you in the face, I could say that this would damage your face—not because we’re fighting each other, simply because my fist is converging with your face. And while it’s true that it’s the fist to face impact that’s doing the damage, and that this screens off intent… this probably won’t happen unless we’re fighting. Likewise, if we’re playing an adversarial game, why the heck would I give away my informational advantage? Without at least trying to deceive you?
That is to say, yes, “honestly reporting beliefs” is what converges people on the same answer because it’s true, but doing this is cooperation.
But correct epistemology does not involve conflicting interests.
Here’s a disproof by example: “You are going to do the dishes”
You can’t divorce the two, because the truth about reality depends on how people try to achieve their interests. And we don’t tend to focus on facts that do not interest us.
Accordingly, when humans successfully approach the Bayesian ideal, it doesn’t particularly feel like cooperating with your beloved friends, who see you with all your blemishes and imperfections but would never let a mere disagreement interfere with loving you. It usually feels like just perceiving things—resolving disagreements so quickly that you don’t even notice them as disagreements.
So, it depends on the nature of the disagreement. If it’s just “when will the bus arrive?”, then yeah, that’s sufficiently free of emotional charge that it doesn’t feel like much, there’s little motive for dishonesty, and will often resolve before its noticed as disagreement.
If it’s something much more meaningful, like “It’s okay if people see what you look like under your makeup” or “Despite this injury, you’re okay”, it starts to feel like something.
These things can still be resolved “bus schedule fast”, when the disagreement really is that simple and people stay honest. It can even be fast enough that no one notices what happened. Yet “Love, imperfections and all” is actually a fairly decent description for its length. So is “Honesty, in an unusually strict sense”.
There are techniques for resolving economic or interpersonal conflicts that involve both parties adopting a more cooperative approach, each being more willing to do what the other party wants (while the other reciprocates by doing more of what the first one wants). Someone who had experience resolving interpersonal conflicts using techniques to improve cooperation might be tempted to apply the same toolkit to resolving dishonest disagreements.
It might very well work for resolving the disagreement. It probably doesn’t work for resolving the disagreement correctly, because cooperation is about finding a compromise amongst agents with partially conflicting interests, and in a dishonest disagreement in which both parties have non-epistemic goals, trying to do more of what the other party functionally “wants” amounts to catering to their bias, not systematically getting closer to the truth.
Interpersonal conflicts are about dishonest disagreements. Because if we’re both being honest about “Who is going to do the dishes”, then just like the bus time disagreement, it resolves before we notice it as a “conflict”.
“You’re going to do the dishes, because I don’t wanna”. “Actually, I think you’re going to do the dishes today because I did them yesterday, and you’re smart enough to recognize that ‘I always get what I want because I say so’ is factually untrue. So you will choose to do the thing that gets you out of as much dish washing as is possible. Which is that’s doing it your half of the time”. “Okay, you’re right”.
Except, like.. you usually don’t have to say it out loud unless someone has been dishonest, because “I get what I want because I say so” is just pretty obviously wrong. So it’s just “Hey, is there a reason you haven’t done the dishes yet today?”, because the underlying “Because you’re smart enough to know you won’t be able to get away with shirking” goes unsaid. And the response is just “Shoot, thanks for reminding me”.
Heck, even physical violence goes that way. I can’t count the number of fights I’ve avoided by responding to “Wanna fight!?” with “Ok”. It’s Aumann agreement over who is about to get their ass kicked if the fight were to happen. “I am gonna beat you up!” “I doubt it” “Me too, actually. Nvm”
To “compromise” a bit, not for the sake of social-cohesion-at-the-cost-of-truth but because you make a good point that I don’t want to get lost, “compromising” on things by keeping the dishonesty and splitting the difference is indeed a failure mode worth pointing out.
If the goal becomes “sing ‘Kumbaya’ together” rather than “track reality”, then the reality you’re not tracking is probably gonna come back to bite you. And it won’t be an accident on the part of the side that perceives it as a “win”
This is a refreshing conclusion. I’m happy to point out what I think you’re getting wrong, but I have to note that this feels pretty cooperative. Already.
I think you’re doing a bit of slight of hand here. If I were to punch you in the face, I could say that this would damage your face—not because we’re fighting each other, simply because my fist is converging with your face. And while it’s true that it’s the fist to face impact that’s doing the damage, and that this screens off intent… this probably won’t happen unless we’re fighting. Likewise, if we’re playing an adversarial game, why the heck would I give away my informational advantage? Without at least trying to deceive you?
That is to say, yes, “honestly reporting beliefs” is what converges people on the same answer because it’s true, but doing this is cooperation.
Here’s a disproof by example: “You are going to do the dishes”
You can’t divorce the two, because the truth about reality depends on how people try to achieve their interests. And we don’t tend to focus on facts that do not interest us.
So, it depends on the nature of the disagreement. If it’s just “when will the bus arrive?”, then yeah, that’s sufficiently free of emotional charge that it doesn’t feel like much, there’s little motive for dishonesty, and will often resolve before its noticed as disagreement.
If it’s something much more meaningful, like “It’s okay if people see what you look like under your makeup” or “Despite this injury, you’re okay”, it starts to feel like something.
These things can still be resolved “bus schedule fast”, when the disagreement really is that simple and people stay honest. It can even be fast enough that no one notices what happened. Yet “Love, imperfections and all” is actually a fairly decent description for its length. So is “Honesty, in an unusually strict sense”.
Interpersonal conflicts are about dishonest disagreements. Because if we’re both being honest about “Who is going to do the dishes”, then just like the bus time disagreement, it resolves before we notice it as a “conflict”.
“You’re going to do the dishes, because I don’t wanna”. “Actually, I think you’re going to do the dishes today because I did them yesterday, and you’re smart enough to recognize that ‘I always get what I want because I say so’ is factually untrue. So you will choose to do the thing that gets you out of as much dish washing as is possible. Which is that’s doing it your half of the time”. “Okay, you’re right”.
Except, like.. you usually don’t have to say it out loud unless someone has been dishonest, because “I get what I want because I say so” is just pretty obviously wrong. So it’s just “Hey, is there a reason you haven’t done the dishes yet today?”, because the underlying “Because you’re smart enough to know you won’t be able to get away with shirking” goes unsaid. And the response is just “Shoot, thanks for reminding me”.
Heck, even physical violence goes that way. I can’t count the number of fights I’ve avoided by responding to “Wanna fight!?” with “Ok”. It’s Aumann agreement over who is about to get their ass kicked if the fight were to happen. “I am gonna beat you up!” “I doubt it” “Me too, actually. Nvm”
To “compromise” a bit, not for the sake of social-cohesion-at-the-cost-of-truth but because you make a good point that I don’t want to get lost, “compromising” on things by keeping the dishonesty and splitting the difference is indeed a failure mode worth pointing out.
If the goal becomes “sing ‘Kumbaya’ together” rather than “track reality”, then the reality you’re not tracking is probably gonna come back to bite you. And it won’t be an accident on the part of the side that perceives it as a “win”