Quick examination of miles per micromort for US drivers, with adjustments for safety-increasing behavior

Link post

This post links to a Google Sheet containing a quick investigation into the accuracy of Wikipedia’s figure for miles per micromort (230) for US drivers, when accounting for preventative behaviors.

The following are the main outcome estimates:

Miles per micromort, no adjustments, in US (2019)91
-- If excluding motorcycles105
-- If excluding motorcycles and pedestrians, pedalcyclists, and other nonoccupants137
-- Amongst passenger vehicle occupants only132
-- Amongst passenger vehicle occupants only, if setting single-car crashes to 0235
-- Amongst passenger vehicle occupants only, if approximating the seatbelt-wearing only rate245
-- Amongst passenger vehicle occupants only, if setting single-car crashes to 0 and approximating the seatbelt-wearing only rate442
-- Amongst passenger vehicle occupants only, if setting single-car crashes to 0 and approximating the seatbelt-wearing only rate and if setting alcohol-impaired, drowsiness-associated, and distraction-associated deaths to 50% of current level (as an approximation of controlling one driver’s behavior in two driver crashes)548

This rapid (~1.5 hrs including documentation) investigation was funded by Ruby Bloom via the Bountied Rationality FB group.