How is it less objectionable than regular ol’ exploitability? E.g. someone finds out that you give in to threats, so they threaten you, so you give in, and wish you had never been born—you are exploitable in the classic sense. But it’s true that if you had been aware from the beginning that you were going to be threatened, you would have wanted to give in.
Part of what I’m doing here is trying to see if my understanding of your work is incorrect. To me, it seems like you are saying “Let’s call some kinds of changes-to-credences ‘updates’ and other kinds ‘awareness-growth.’ Here’s how to distinguish them. Now, we recommend the strategy of EA-OMU, which means you calculate what your credences would have been if you never made any updates but DID make the awareness-growth changes, and then calculate what policy is optimal according to those credences, and then do that.’
If that’s what you are saying, then the natural next question is: What if anything does this buy us? It doesn’t solve the commitment races problem, because the problem still remains so long as agents can strategically influence each other’s awareness growth process. E.g. “Ah, I see that you are an EA-OMU agent. I’m going to threaten you, and then when you find out, even though you won’t update, your awareness will grow, and so then you’ll cave. Bwahaha.”
Also, how is this different from the “commitment races in logical time” situation? Like, when I wrote the original commitment races post it was after talking with Abram and realizing that going updateless didn’t solve the problem because agents aren’t logically omniscient, they need to gradually build up more hypotheses and more coherent priors over time. And even if they are updateless with respect to all empirical evidence, i.e. they never update their prior based on empirical evidence, their a priori reasoning probably still results in race dynamics. Or at least so it seemed to me.
I don’t think I fully understand the proposal so it’s likely I’m missing something here.
I do find it plausible that being updateless about empirical (but not logical) stuff at least ameliorates the problem somewhat, and as far as I can tell that’s basically equivalent to saying being EA-OMU is better than being a naive consequentialist at least. But I wish I understood the situation well enough to crisply articulate why.
But it’s true that if you had been aware from the beginning that you were going to be threatened, you would have wanted to give in.
To clarify, I didn’t mean that if you were sure your counterpart would Dare from the beginning, you would’ve wanted to Swerve. I meant that if you were aware of the possibility of Crazy types from the beginning, you would’ve wanted to Swerve. (In this example.)
I can’t tell if you think that (1) being willing to Swerve in the case that you’re fully aware from the outset (because you might have a sufficiently high prior on Crazy agents) is a problem. Or if you think (2) this somehow only becomes a problem in the open-minded setting (even though the EA-OMU agent is acting according to the exact same prior as they would’ve if they started out fully aware, once their awareness grows).
(The comment about regular ol exploitability suggests (1)? But does that mean you think agents shouldn’t ever Swerve, even given arbitrarily high prior mass on Crazy types?)
What if anything does this buy us?
In the example in this post, the ex ante utility-maximizing action for a fully aware agent is to Swerve. The agent starts out not fully aware, and so doesn’t Swerve unless they are open-minded. So it buys us being able to take actions that are ex ante optimal for our fully aware selves when we otherwise wouldn’t have due to unawareness. And being ex ante optimal from the fully aware perspective seems preferable to me than being, e.g., ex ante optimal from the less-aware perspective.
More generally, we are worried that agents will make commitments based on “dumb” priors (because they think it’s dangerous to think more and make their prior less dumb). And EA-OMU says: No, you can think more (in the sense of becoming aware of more possibilities), because the right notion of ex ante optimality is ex ante optimality with respect to your fully-aware prior. That’s what it buys us.
And revising priors based on awareness growth differs from updating on empirical evidence because it only gives other agents incentives to make you aware of things you would’ve wanted to be aware of ex ante.
they need to gradually build up more hypotheses and more coherent priors over time
I’m not sure I understand—isn’t this exactly what open-mindedness is trying to (partially) address? I.e., how to be updateless when you need to build up hypotheses (and, as mentioned briefly, better principles for specifying priors).
How is it less objectionable than regular ol’ exploitability? E.g. someone finds out that you give in to threats, so they threaten you, so you give in, and wish you had never been born—you are exploitable in the classic sense. But it’s true that if you had been aware from the beginning that you were going to be threatened, you would have wanted to give in.
Part of what I’m doing here is trying to see if my understanding of your work is incorrect. To me, it seems like you are saying “Let’s call some kinds of changes-to-credences ‘updates’ and other kinds ‘awareness-growth.’ Here’s how to distinguish them. Now, we recommend the strategy of EA-OMU, which means you calculate what your credences would have been if you never made any updates but DID make the awareness-growth changes, and then calculate what policy is optimal according to those credences, and then do that.’
If that’s what you are saying, then the natural next question is: What if anything does this buy us? It doesn’t solve the commitment races problem, because the problem still remains so long as agents can strategically influence each other’s awareness growth process. E.g. “Ah, I see that you are an EA-OMU agent. I’m going to threaten you, and then when you find out, even though you won’t update, your awareness will grow, and so then you’ll cave. Bwahaha.”
Also, how is this different from the “commitment races in logical time” situation? Like, when I wrote the original commitment races post it was after talking with Abram and realizing that going updateless didn’t solve the problem because agents aren’t logically omniscient, they need to gradually build up more hypotheses and more coherent priors over time. And even if they are updateless with respect to all empirical evidence, i.e. they never update their prior based on empirical evidence, their a priori reasoning probably still results in race dynamics. Or at least so it seemed to me.
I don’t think I fully understand the proposal so it’s likely I’m missing something here.
I do find it plausible that being updateless about empirical (but not logical) stuff at least ameliorates the problem somewhat, and as far as I can tell that’s basically equivalent to saying being EA-OMU is better than being a naive consequentialist at least. But I wish I understood the situation well enough to crisply articulate why.
To clarify, I didn’t mean that if you were sure your counterpart would Dare from the beginning, you would’ve wanted to Swerve. I meant that if you were aware of the possibility of Crazy types from the beginning, you would’ve wanted to Swerve. (In this example.)
I can’t tell if you think that (1) being willing to Swerve in the case that you’re fully aware from the outset (because you might have a sufficiently high prior on Crazy agents) is a problem. Or if you think (2) this somehow only becomes a problem in the open-minded setting (even though the EA-OMU agent is acting according to the exact same prior as they would’ve if they started out fully aware, once their awareness grows).
(The comment about regular ol exploitability suggests (1)? But does that mean you think agents shouldn’t ever Swerve, even given arbitrarily high prior mass on Crazy types?)
In the example in this post, the ex ante utility-maximizing action for a fully aware agent is to Swerve. The agent starts out not fully aware, and so doesn’t Swerve unless they are open-minded. So it buys us being able to take actions that are ex ante optimal for our fully aware selves when we otherwise wouldn’t have due to unawareness. And being ex ante optimal from the fully aware perspective seems preferable to me than being, e.g., ex ante optimal from the less-aware perspective.
More generally, we are worried that agents will make commitments based on “dumb” priors (because they think it’s dangerous to think more and make their prior less dumb). And EA-OMU says: No, you can think more (in the sense of becoming aware of more possibilities), because the right notion of ex ante optimality is ex ante optimality with respect to your fully-aware prior. That’s what it buys us.
And revising priors based on awareness growth differs from updating on empirical evidence because it only gives other agents incentives to make you aware of things you would’ve wanted to be aware of ex ante.
I’m not sure I understand—isn’t this exactly what open-mindedness is trying to (partially) address? I.e., how to be updateless when you need to build up hypotheses (and, as mentioned briefly, better principles for specifying priors).