(4): I think regulation should get much more thought than this. I don’t think you can defend the point that regulation would have 0% probability of working. It really depends on how many people are how scared. And that’s something we could quite possibly change, if we would actually try (LW and EA haven’t tried).
In terms of implementation: I agree that software/research regulation might not work. But hardware regulation seems much more robust to me. Data regulation might also be an option. As a lower bound: globally ban hardware development beyond 1990 levels, confiscate the remaining hardware. It’s not fun, but I think it would work, given political support. If we stay multiple OOM below the brain, I don’t think any researcher could come up with an algorithm that much better than evolution (they haven’t in the 60s-90s).
There is probably something much smarter and less economically damaging out there that would also be robust. Research that tells us what the least damaging but still robust regulation option is, is long overdue.
(4): I think regulation should get much more thought than this. I don’t think you can defend the point that regulation would have 0% probability of working. It really depends on how many people are how scared. And that’s something we could quite possibly change, if we would actually try (LW and EA haven’t tried).
In terms of implementation: I agree that software/research regulation might not work. But hardware regulation seems much more robust to me. Data regulation might also be an option. As a lower bound: globally ban hardware development beyond 1990 levels, confiscate the remaining hardware. It’s not fun, but I think it would work, given political support. If we stay multiple OOM below the brain, I don’t think any researcher could come up with an algorithm that much better than evolution (they haven’t in the 60s-90s).
There is probably something much smarter and less economically damaging out there that would also be robust. Research that tells us what the least damaging but still robust regulation option is, is long overdue.