AI research began in 1950, and so is now 65 years old. If we are currently in a random moment during AI research then it could be estimated that there is a 50% probability of AI being created in the next 65 years, i.e. by 2080. Not very optimistic. Further, we can say that the probability of its creation within the next 1300 years is 95 per cent. So we get a rather vague prediction that AI will almost certainly be created within the next 1000 years, and few people would disagree with that.
This does not necessarily suggest that AI will exist with 95% certainty by that time, but that the period of AI research like what has gone on since 1950 will stop by then, success or non.
This does not necessarily suggest that AI will exist with 95% certainty by that time, but that the period of AI research like what has gone on since 1950 will stop by then, success or non.
True. Several possible reasons for that were discussed in the comment below.