When I imagine Earth 2020 in a world with humans 40% smarter I mostly expect that it speed ran the tech tree 40% faster and consequently humans have been extinct for hundreds of years.
To avert this you need the humans to be significantly better at coordination, and that is part of the conceipt of dath ilan. I don’t see much evidence for Yudkowsky being significantly above median at coordination, and his dominant streak likely makes him below Earth median at following & corrigibility. He’s also contrarian and arrogant and loves trolling. That probably doesn’t net out at successful world conspiracy and people predictably doing what Exception Control says.
It is quite possible that dath ilan has deep dysfunctions that Eliezer may be unaware of. For example, what about those near-copies of him that happen to be below average, and fail to channel their energy into becoming a benevolent quasi-cult leader? Will they patiently accept their place at the bottom of the food chain and cooperate, or will they try to overthrow the system? Can the system resist so many smart people trying to overthrow it?
Agree on the likely extinction by smart and enthusiastically pro-tech young Eliezers.
Also, how much does the world actually reflect its median inhabitants? For example, Earth seems both much better (more science) and much worse (more wars) that talking to the median Earth human in isolation would suggest, I think. Some things are median-driven, some things are outlier-driven (science, crime).
When I imagine Earth 2020 in a world with humans 40% smarter I mostly expect that it speed ran the tech tree 40% faster and consequently humans have been extinct for hundreds of years.
To avert this you need the humans to be significantly better at coordination, and that is part of the conceipt of dath ilan. I don’t see much evidence for Yudkowsky being significantly above median at coordination, and his dominant streak likely makes him below Earth median at following & corrigibility. He’s also contrarian and arrogant and loves trolling. That probably doesn’t net out at successful world conspiracy and people predictably doing what Exception Control says.
It is quite possible that dath ilan has deep dysfunctions that Eliezer may be unaware of. For example, what about those near-copies of him that happen to be below average, and fail to channel their energy into becoming a benevolent quasi-cult leader? Will they patiently accept their place at the bottom of the food chain and cooperate, or will they try to overthrow the system? Can the system resist so many smart people trying to overthrow it?
Agree on the likely extinction by smart and enthusiastically pro-tech young Eliezers.
Also, how much does the world actually reflect its median inhabitants? For example, Earth seems both much better (more science) and much worse (more wars) that talking to the median Earth human in isolation would suggest, I think. Some things are median-driven, some things are outlier-driven (science, crime).