To take the prompt “what would the world be like if I were the median person” and straightforwardly imagine a world that is the best most productively organized world seems narcissistic on its own.
Doesn’t seem that way to me. The median person in this world has IQ 100. Go 1SD lower, and people are functionally illiterate. Go 2SD higher instead; there you will meet me. Eliezer seems smarter (no, I am not saying the smartest person ever), so maybe add extra 1SD. Now imagine a world where that is the average.
Hard to say what exactly such world would look like, but imagine a world where a typical subreddit is like LessWrong, but specialized on something, and with more users. Imagine such world’s political debates; imagine its institutions. Is it so unlikely that things could be much better? Compared to our world, where if you say “the sky is blue”, many people will immediately object that their holy book says that it is red, or that they have read on social networks that sky is fake; and you can only have policies that such people approve, and you need to staff your institutions with such people.
(But of course, the villains would also be smarter, so there is a chance that would invent smart systems that lock everyone else in their service. The villains would also be better at cooperation.)
Also, it is assumed that the world would not be organized by Eliezer alone, but by a billion copies of him.
When I imagine Earth 2020 in a world with humans 40% smarter I mostly expect that it speed ran the tech tree 40% faster and consequently humans have been extinct for hundreds of years.
To avert this you need the humans to be significantly better at coordination, and that is part of the conceipt of dath ilan. I don’t see much evidence for Yudkowsky being significantly above median at coordination, and his dominant streak likely makes him below Earth median at following & corrigibility. He’s also contrarian and arrogant and loves trolling. That probably doesn’t net out at successful world conspiracy and people predictably doing what Exception Control says.
It is quite possible that dath ilan has deep dysfunctions that Eliezer may be unaware of. For example, what about those near-copies of him that happen to be below average, and fail to channel their energy into becoming a benevolent quasi-cult leader? Will they patiently accept their place at the bottom of the food chain and cooperate, or will they try to overthrow the system? Can the system resist so many smart people trying to overthrow it?
Agree on the likely extinction by smart and enthusiastically pro-tech young Eliezers.
Also, how much does the world actually reflect its median inhabitants? For example, Earth seems both much better (more science) and much worse (more wars) that talking to the median Earth human in isolation would suggest, I think. Some things are median-driven, some things are outlier-driven (science, crime).
Doesn’t seem that way to me. The median person in this world has IQ 100. Go 1SD lower, and people are functionally illiterate. Go 2SD higher instead; there you will meet me. Eliezer seems smarter (no, I am not saying the smartest person ever), so maybe add extra 1SD. Now imagine a world where that is the average.
Hard to say what exactly such world would look like, but imagine a world where a typical subreddit is like LessWrong, but specialized on something, and with more users. Imagine such world’s political debates; imagine its institutions. Is it so unlikely that things could be much better? Compared to our world, where if you say “the sky is blue”, many people will immediately object that their holy book says that it is red, or that they have read on social networks that sky is fake; and you can only have policies that such people approve, and you need to staff your institutions with such people.
(But of course, the villains would also be smarter, so there is a chance that would invent smart systems that lock everyone else in their service. The villains would also be better at cooperation.)
Also, it is assumed that the world would not be organized by Eliezer alone, but by a billion copies of him.
When I imagine Earth 2020 in a world with humans 40% smarter I mostly expect that it speed ran the tech tree 40% faster and consequently humans have been extinct for hundreds of years.
To avert this you need the humans to be significantly better at coordination, and that is part of the conceipt of dath ilan. I don’t see much evidence for Yudkowsky being significantly above median at coordination, and his dominant streak likely makes him below Earth median at following & corrigibility. He’s also contrarian and arrogant and loves trolling. That probably doesn’t net out at successful world conspiracy and people predictably doing what Exception Control says.
It is quite possible that dath ilan has deep dysfunctions that Eliezer may be unaware of. For example, what about those near-copies of him that happen to be below average, and fail to channel their energy into becoming a benevolent quasi-cult leader? Will they patiently accept their place at the bottom of the food chain and cooperate, or will they try to overthrow the system? Can the system resist so many smart people trying to overthrow it?
Agree on the likely extinction by smart and enthusiastically pro-tech young Eliezers.
Also, how much does the world actually reflect its median inhabitants? For example, Earth seems both much better (more science) and much worse (more wars) that talking to the median Earth human in isolation would suggest, I think. Some things are median-driven, some things are outlier-driven (science, crime).