If we want to get decision-theoretical about it, I view something on the order of FTX to be worthy of a grim-trigger policy. If you substantively aided the fraud, you should be barred from positions of power in the community thenceforth.
I agree with that this is a good prior given appropriate operationalization of “positions of power”, which is importantly not what we are discussing! I also think you are underestimating the opportunities people have for genuine redemption and putting people in positions of conditional power where their strengths are leveraged without needing to extend them much trust in domains where their judgement is weak.
E.g. Caroline ending up in a position of power as a result of becoming a really really good forecaster who lots of people defer to because she has an obviously strong forecasting track record, while people are appropriately hesitant to not give her unconditional power, seems like a fine outcome, and if anything it would be inappropriate for institutions like Metaculus to ban Caroline because of a consequentialist argument about her being publicly displayed as a strong forecaster being bad for the world by empowering her.
Surely you agree that the correct place to draw the line is short of a role where she could, if she chose, commit massive fraud again within the EA ecosystem!
If we want to get decision-theoretical about it, I view something on the order of FTX to be worthy of a grim-trigger policy. If you substantively aided the fraud, you should be barred from positions of power in the community thenceforth.
I agree with that this is a good prior given appropriate operationalization of “positions of power”, which is importantly not what we are discussing! I also think you are underestimating the opportunities people have for genuine redemption and putting people in positions of conditional power where their strengths are leveraged without needing to extend them much trust in domains where their judgement is weak.
E.g. Caroline ending up in a position of power as a result of becoming a really really good forecaster who lots of people defer to because she has an obviously strong forecasting track record, while people are appropriately hesitant to not give her unconditional power, seems like a fine outcome, and if anything it would be inappropriate for institutions like Metaculus to ban Caroline because of a consequentialist argument about her being publicly displayed as a strong forecaster being bad for the world by empowering her.
Surely you agree that the correct place to draw the line is short of a role where she could, if she chose, commit massive fraud again within the EA ecosystem!
Definitely! I don’t know whether that’s true about her current position and think the correct place to draw the line is a bunch earlier than that.