In terms of general intelligence including long-horizon agency, reliability, etc., do we think AIs are yet, for example, as autonomously good as the worst professionals? My instinct is no for many of them, even though the AIs might be better at the majority of sub-tasks and are very helpful as collaborators rather than fully replacing someone. But I’m uncertain, it might depend on the operalization and profession, for some professions the answer seems clearly yes.[1][2] It also seems harder to reason about than the literally least capable professional something like the 10th percentile.
If the answer is no and we’re looking at the ability to fully autonomously replace humans, this would mean the village idiot → Einstein claim might technically not be falsified. The spirit of the claim might be though, e.g. in terms of the claimed implications.
One profession for which it seems likely that the AIs are better than the least capable humans is therapy. Also teaching/tutoring. In general this seems true for professions that can be done via remote work, don’t involve heavy required computer use or long horizon agency.
In terms of general intelligence including long-horizon agency, reliability, etc., do we think AIs are yet, for example, as autonomously good as the worst professionals? My instinct is no for many of them, even though the AIs might be better at the majority of sub-tasks and are very helpful as collaborators rather than fully replacing someone. But I’m uncertain, it might depend on the operalization and profession, for some professions the answer seems clearly yes.[1][2] It also seems harder to reason about than the literally least capable professional something like the 10th percentile.
If the answer is no and we’re looking at the ability to fully autonomously replace humans, this would mean the village idiot → Einstein claim might technically not be falsified. The spirit of the claim might be though, e.g. in terms of the claimed implications.
There’s also a question of whether we should include phyiscal abilities, if so then the answer would clearly be no for those professions or tasks.
One profession for which it seems likely that the AIs are better than the least capable humans is therapy. Also teaching/tutoring. In general this seems true for professions that can be done via remote work, don’t involve heavy required computer use or long horizon agency.