I think one of the (many) reasons people have historically tended to miscommunicate/talk past each other so much about AI timelines, is that the perceived suddenness of growth rates depends heavily on your choice of time span. (As Eliezer puts it, “Any process is continuous if you zoom in close enough.”)
It sounds to me like you guys (Thane and Ryan) agree about the growth rate of the training process, but are assessing its perceived suddenness/continuousness relative to different time spans?
I think one of the (many) reasons people have historically tended to miscommunicate/talk past each other so much about AI timelines, is that the perceived suddenness of growth rates depends heavily on your choice of time span. (As Eliezer puts it, “Any process is continuous if you zoom in close enough.”)
It sounds to me like you guys (Thane and Ryan) agree about the growth rate of the training process, but are assessing its perceived suddenness/continuousness relative to different time spans?