So, I think takeoff has begun, but it’s under quite different conditions than people used to model.
I don’t think they are quite different. Christiano’s argument was largely about the societal impact, i.e. that transformative AI would arrive in an already-pretty-transformed world:
I believe that before we have incredibly powerful AI, we will have AI which is merely very powerful. This won’t be enough to create 100% GDP growth, but it will be enough to lead to (say) 50% GDP growth. I think the likely gap between these events is years rather than months or decades.
In particular, this means that incredibly powerful AI will emerge in a world where crazy stuff is already happening (and probably everyone is already freaking out). If true, I think it’s an important fact about the strategic situation.
I claim the world is clearly not yet pretty-transformed, in this sense. So insofar as you think takeoff has already begun, or expect short (e.g. AI 2027-ish) timelines—I personally expect neither, to be clear—I do think this takeoff is centrally of the sort Christiano would call “fast.”
I don’t think they are quite different. Christiano’s argument was largely about the societal impact, i.e. that transformative AI would arrive in an already-pretty-transformed world:
I claim the world is clearly not yet pretty-transformed, in this sense. So insofar as you think takeoff has already begun, or expect short (e.g. AI 2027-ish) timelines—I personally expect neither, to be clear—I do think this takeoff is centrally of the sort Christiano would call “fast.”