These statements are like time-unbounded economic forecasts in that they have virtually no information content. You have to couple them with some kind of capabilities assessment or application to get actual predictions.
Before either of these (inevitably) becomes true, can we get interpretability research out of an AI? Can we get an effective EA-aligned-political-lobbyist AI that can be distinguished from a deceptively-aligned-political-lobbyist-AI? Can we get nanotech? Can we get nanotech design tools?
These statements are like time-unbounded economic forecasts in that they have virtually no information content. You have to couple them with some kind of capabilities assessment or application to get actual predictions.
Before either of these (inevitably) becomes true, can we get interpretability research out of an AI? Can we get an effective EA-aligned-political-lobbyist AI that can be distinguished from a deceptively-aligned-political-lobbyist-AI? Can we get nanotech? Can we get nanotech design tools?