The problem I see with Ethereum is the tech itself. Is building a scalable and decentralised blockchain possible at all? Ethereum needs to get it right in few years, or it will lose the first mover advantage and other chains will take the lead.
On the other side, Bitcoin is already working as a decentralised store of value and doesn’t need crazy scalability, even though it would be beneficial (and necessary in order to be a daily currency).
Is building a scalable and decentralised blockchain possible at all?
Polkadot manages 3000 transactions per second (200x of what Ethereum currently does) and is in the process of rolling out additional side chains.
Bitcoin is already working as a decentralised store of value
Bitcoin works as a store of value as long as people believe in it rising in price.
-Polkadot has less than 300 validators at the moment, the system is not decentralised enough to support large attacks.
-Well, rising or at least stable. Considering that gold market cap is 10x bitcoin, and then bitcoin can be gold 2.0, there is definitely a large upside left. See also the stock-to-flow model applied to bitcoin.
A validator in Polkadot is like a mining pool in bitcoin. In Bitcoin controlling the largest 4 mining pools is enough to control more then 50% of the hashing power of the network. Less then 10% of the hashing power are controlled by mining pools that are not in the top ten of mining pools.
Polkadot is more then an order of magnitude more decentralized then Bitcoin in that regard.
Well, rising or at least stable. Considering that gold market cap is 10x bitcoin, and then bitcoin can be gold 2.0, there is definitely a large upside left. See also the stock-to-flow model applied to bitcoin.
If the price is stable for decades it would make it comparable to Gold. Being stable for 2-3 years however does not it make it comparable to gold for being a stable investment vehicle.
If you own Gold, the Chinese government can’t simply freeze your gold if they want to do so which they can given that Bitcoin mining is centralized in China.
If Bitcoin is 10x the price of what it’s now it’s also going to be 10x the energy cost. While Bitcoin’s energy cost is already now an issue it will be more when it is 10x. This means that any company holding assets in Bitcoin will get ESG fighting it (ESG is getter stronger as time goes on).
If there are two crypto-currencies with stable prices and one is proof of work and the other is proof of stake, it makes sense to have your money in the proof of stake currency and earn staking rewards.
There’s also a good chance that someone will create a DeFi project that does more work to add additional features that are desireable for the current use-case of Gold. Bitcoin is basically a luddie bet against innovation in crypto.
The number of validators is irrelevant (well, you want it to be large enough so that a few players can’t collude to control a majority of the validating power) - what’s important is their scale, i.e. how much does one need to stake in order to acquire a majority of the validating power and take over the network.