This statement made me wonder: ” Things are generally closer to optimal equilibria, and equilibria are more legible/predictable than non-quilibria.”
And I might be thinking incorrectly myself here as well as not fully following your though.
Why would the equilibria position be more predictable than off equilibria? One thought might be that we have this sense of balance so in an equilibrium we feel that it right (and using “feel” is probably a poor word choice but little time to find the right word). But that doesn’t mean we can then make any types of predictions.
The thought that came to me was more along the idea, if we generally understand where the equilbirum position should be then we have some idea of where we should go. (Think standard econ theory of prices as signals and arbitrage to equilibrate across markets).
However, if we are at the equilibrium position it might not be clear what happens if we do something we want to do but have never done before. Will that be consistent with equilibrium or disruptive. I think this does fit with the whole “guestimate” approach to predication and forecasting. Perhaps your view on more predictability then comes from having the equilibrium as the initial position you start from. But what if equilibrium is more like a place where information is actually lost?
This statement made me wonder: ” Things are generally closer to optimal equilibria, and equilibria are more legible/predictable than non-quilibria.”
And I might be thinking incorrectly myself here as well as not fully following your though.
Why would the equilibria position be more predictable than off equilibria? One thought might be that we have this sense of balance so in an equilibrium we feel that it right (and using “feel” is probably a poor word choice but little time to find the right word). But that doesn’t mean we can then make any types of predictions.
The thought that came to me was more along the idea, if we generally understand where the equilbirum position should be then we have some idea of where we should go. (Think standard econ theory of prices as signals and arbitrage to equilibrate across markets).
However, if we are at the equilibrium position it might not be clear what happens if we do something we want to do but have never done before. Will that be consistent with equilibrium or disruptive. I think this does fit with the whole “guestimate” approach to predication and forecasting. Perhaps your view on more predictability then comes from having the equilibrium as the initial position you start from. But what if equilibrium is more like a place where information is actually lost?