Hypothesis: Guesstimates have always worked on transparent and opaque domains. As communication and reasoning tools have become better over time, more domains have become transparent and opaque. What used to have been encoded by culture can now be encoded in big data.
Hypothesis:
As communication and reasoning tools have gotten better, things have become more intertwined in complex, complicated, and unexpected ways. This means that the things we do can have unexpected consequences, and that distributions we’re shutting up and multiplying in can be effected at unexpected times in unexpected ways. This makes more domains Knightian.
In other words, we have the illusion of more transparency, but we actually have more Knightian environments.
Hypothesis: Smoothing out knightian environments to make them more predictable in the short term makes them more suspectible to large black swans. The smoothing behavior you noted above may actually contribute to this illusion of transparency.
Hypothesis: Guesstimates have always worked on transparent and opaque domains. As communication and reasoning tools have become better over time, more domains have become transparent and opaque. What used to have been encoded by culture can now be encoded in big data.
Hypothesis:
As communication and reasoning tools have gotten better, things have become more intertwined in complex, complicated, and unexpected ways. This means that the things we do can have unexpected consequences, and that distributions we’re shutting up and multiplying in can be effected at unexpected times in unexpected ways. This makes more domains Knightian.
In other words, we have the illusion of more transparency, but we actually have more Knightian environments.
Hypothesis: Smoothing out knightian environments to make them more predictable in the short term makes them more suspectible to large black swans. The smoothing behavior you noted above may actually contribute to this illusion of transparency.