To get a decent estimate one needs to ask many questions. How far in the future is the singularity? How odd are you? How intelligent are you? What traits do you seek in a mate or rather are you willing to become a single parent with the use of technology and getting the best sperm/ovum money can buy? How good is one at crafting memes and choosing life situations that will ensure high fertilty and transmission of values to their children?
If the singularity is 50+ years away I’m quite sure an average TFR of 4 for LWrong readers would have a greater impact on its course than if they had directed the time and resources that allowed the community to rise above the expected fertility its demographic on things like mentoring and writing. Especially since mentoring and writting seems like something one can do after one is “done” with children, things like especially tricky and important math are however worth sacrificing reproductive time for.
On timescales longer than that having children, except for the top talent who builds a cultural base, is just ridiculously more productive especially if they can form virtual communities and peer networks for their children ensuring they have above average fertility as well. This would I think move LW into, socially speaking, functioning more like a religion, with all the potentially positive and negative consequences.
If you were really trying to optimize impact on the future, both genetically and memetically, then regular donation of sperm/eggs plus mentoring/writing/educating is clearly more effective.
This is supposing that perhaps one dosen’t come from a line where genetics and memetics co-evolved to a great codependency.
While meme dissemination may find a few people with the right traits to hold on, my (if I was human) biological children seem unlikely to stumble into the proper memes.
Also both parents and educators effect on children is minimal, but a parent can influence a child’s peer group (which does have a considerable influence) far more effectively (he can move) than a teacher or mentor.
In any case optimizing for genetic success is so low cost, I can’t see why everyone, those with children and those without don’t donate sperm/eggs in countries where they can do so anonymously.
Donating sperm is pretty easy. Donating eggs requires some hospital approving you, injecting yourself daily with fertility drugs with unknown long-term effects, making really sure you don’t get pregnant while you’re super-fertile and can’t use normal birth control, a 5% risk of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome, and people poking around inside you with a big needle (possibly puncturing something while it’s in there). I would be more likely to consider it if the health risks didn’t make my husband so nervous.
Depends. Genetics matter.
To get a decent estimate one needs to ask many questions. How far in the future is the singularity? How odd are you? How intelligent are you? What traits do you seek in a mate or rather are you willing to become a single parent with the use of technology and getting the best sperm/ovum money can buy? How good is one at crafting memes and choosing life situations that will ensure high fertilty and transmission of values to their children?
If the singularity is 50+ years away I’m quite sure an average TFR of 4 for LWrong readers would have a greater impact on its course than if they had directed the time and resources that allowed the community to rise above the expected fertility its demographic on things like mentoring and writing. Especially since mentoring and writting seems like something one can do after one is “done” with children, things like especially tricky and important math are however worth sacrificing reproductive time for.
On timescales longer than that having children, except for the top talent who builds a cultural base, is just ridiculously more productive especially if they can form virtual communities and peer networks for their children ensuring they have above average fertility as well. This would I think move LW into, socially speaking, functioning more like a religion, with all the potentially positive and negative consequences.
If you were really trying to optimize impact on the future, both genetically and memetically, then regular donation of sperm/eggs plus mentoring/writing/educating is clearly more effective.
This is supposing that perhaps one dosen’t come from a line where genetics and memetics co-evolved to a great codependency.
While meme dissemination may find a few people with the right traits to hold on, my (if I was human) biological children seem unlikely to stumble into the proper memes.
Also both parents and educators effect on children is minimal, but a parent can influence a child’s peer group (which does have a considerable influence) far more effectively (he can move) than a teacher or mentor.
In any case optimizing for genetic success is so low cost, I can’t see why everyone, those with children and those without don’t donate sperm/eggs in countries where they can do so anonymously.
Donating sperm is pretty easy. Donating eggs requires some hospital approving you, injecting yourself daily with fertility drugs with unknown long-term effects, making really sure you don’t get pregnant while you’re super-fertile and can’t use normal birth control, a 5% risk of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome, and people poking around inside you with a big needle (possibly puncturing something while it’s in there). I would be more likely to consider it if the health risks didn’t make my husband so nervous.