scooped up Leo Messi from the hinterlands of Argentina at age 12 and he went and became Leo Messi. Lebron James was on the cover of Sports Illustrated when he was in high school.
Identifying Messi at age 12 is a lot more impressive than identifying James a year before he goes pro, when the only thing holding him back from going pro immediately is the NBA’s diploma requirement.
Some people say that Newton was “scooped up” at 12, although I’m not sure how accurate that is.
Even if it were true about Newton, it wouldn’t be useful to compare him to Messi without knowing the base rate of how many kids are scooped up, in both fields. Here is something where we can look up the base rate: the IMO. Something like half of Fields Medalists won a gold medal at the IMO in high school. About 50 gold medals are handed out each year, fewer in the past. You should be really impressed by that rate of prediction. Of course, it’s comparing math to math, not g.
Identifying Messi at age 12 is a lot more impressive than identifying James a year before he goes pro, when the only thing holding him back from going pro immediately is the NBA’s diploma requirement.
Some people say that Newton was “scooped up” at 12, although I’m not sure how accurate that is.
Even if it were true about Newton, it wouldn’t be useful to compare him to Messi without knowing the base rate of how many kids are scooped up, in both fields. Here is something where we can look up the base rate: the IMO. Something like half of Fields Medalists won a gold medal at the IMO in high school. About 50 gold medals are handed out each year, fewer in the past. You should be really impressed by that rate of prediction. Of course, it’s comparing math to math, not g.
Maybe a good comparison to IMO:Fields would be (First round draft pick):(Hall of Fame).