I think it’s basically certain that an AGI will be able to hack enough computers to ensure it will be impossible to shut off, and that it has sufficient compute to do whatever it wants. It can do that in a matter of hours—after all botnets can already do this.
Once it’s in that position it doesn’t need to try just one plan. It will try all of them at once. It can start a nuclear war, build nanobots, mess with the climate, build 1000 different super diseases and try to spread them from every single DNA manufacturer at once. It will also think of a whole bunch of plans you or I could never think of.
It only needs one of these to succeed. And since it can’t be shut down it doesn’t actually care if it gets caught.
It has to create an independent computational infrastructure before killing all people. Yudkowsky’s plan with nanobots ensures this, other plans don’t.
independent computational infrastructure doesn’t seem that hard—house with a computer and solar panels might do. What seems harder is it would need an independent manufacturing infrastructure capable of bootstrapping to arbitrarily complex products.
I think it’s basically certain that an AGI will be able to hack enough computers to ensure it will be impossible to shut off, and that it has sufficient compute to do whatever it wants. It can do that in a matter of hours—after all botnets can already do this.
Once it’s in that position it doesn’t need to try just one plan. It will try all of them at once. It can start a nuclear war, build nanobots, mess with the climate, build 1000 different super diseases and try to spread them from every single DNA manufacturer at once. It will also think of a whole bunch of plans you or I could never think of.
It only needs one of these to succeed. And since it can’t be shut down it doesn’t actually care if it gets caught.
It has to create an independent computational infrastructure before killing all people. Yudkowsky’s plan with nanobots ensures this, other plans don’t.
independent computational infrastructure doesn’t seem that hard—house with a computer and solar panels might do. What seems harder is it would need an independent manufacturing infrastructure capable of bootstrapping to arbitrarily complex products.