But I also don’t think that this will bring the singularity because of the complexity limits mentioned above. Strong AI will speed up some cognitive tasks with compound interest—but only until the physical feedback level is reached. Or a social feedback level is reached if AI should be designed to be so.
Depends what you mean by “singularity” and, to some extent, “AI.” If “artificial general intelligence” means it can do any task a human can, at minimum you’ve just taken away labor supply as a constraint on economic growth, so now the economy can more or less grow as fast as we can build new hardware. Robin Hanson (an economist) has predict that would lead to the economy doubling in size every month or so. Which isn’t as fast of a rate of change as Eliezer is predicting, but still arguably deserves the label “singularity.”
Exponential increase on that scale would be astounding. But it wouldn’t be a singularity. Otherwise the grows of human population(s) - which is over long ranges exponential basically for the same reason—would have to be called singularity too. The word ‘singularity’ should be reserved for poles. Points where the function goes to infinity or leaves previously defined ranges.
Depends what you mean by “singularity” and, to some extent, “AI.” If “artificial general intelligence” means it can do any task a human can, at minimum you’ve just taken away labor supply as a constraint on economic growth, so now the economy can more or less grow as fast as we can build new hardware. Robin Hanson (an economist) has predict that would lead to the economy doubling in size every month or so. Which isn’t as fast of a rate of change as Eliezer is predicting, but still arguably deserves the label “singularity.”
Exponential increase on that scale would be astounding. But it wouldn’t be a singularity. Otherwise the grows of human population(s) - which is over long ranges exponential basically for the same reason—would have to be called singularity too. The word ‘singularity’ should be reserved for poles. Points where the function goes to infinity or leaves previously defined ranges.