While not a good direct answer to your question I think an old economics article, The Origins of Predictable Behavior, (Ron Heiner, AER 1984 I think) looks into low probability, high cost situations to suggest such setting will tent to support the emergence of social rules and norms to mitigate the risks.
While not a good direct answer to your question I think an old economics article, The Origins of Predictable Behavior, (Ron Heiner, AER 1984 I think) looks into low probability, high cost situations to suggest such setting will tent to support the emergence of social rules and norms to mitigate the risks.