Efficient Markets Hypothesis has plenty of exceptions, but this is too coarse-grained and distant to be one of them. Don’t ask “what will happen, so I can bet based on that”, ask “what do I believe that differs widely from my counterparties”. This possibility is almost certainly “priced in” to the obvious bets (TSMC).
That said, you may be more correct than the sellers of long-term puts, so maybe it’ll work out. Having a theory and then examining the details and modeling the specific probabilities is exactly what you should be doing. Have you looked at prices and premia for those specific investments? A quick spreadsheet of win/loss in various future paths with as close to real numbers as possible goes a long way.
Efficient Markets Hypothesis has plenty of exceptions, but this is too coarse-grained and distant to be one of them. Don’t ask “what will happen, so I can bet based on that”, ask “what do I believe that differs widely from my counterparties”. This possibility is almost certainly “priced in” to the obvious bets (TSMC).
That said, you may be more correct than the sellers of long-term puts, so maybe it’ll work out. Having a theory and then examining the details and modeling the specific probabilities is exactly what you should be doing. Have you looked at prices and premia for those specific investments? A quick spreadsheet of win/loss in various future paths with as close to real numbers as possible goes a long way.