I’m not sure exactly how I’d define a coup but I’d say it has to be clear cut enough that, “Was it really an attempt at a coup?” is not really in contention in the aftermath.
I think this is a tricky standard, because many maybe-coups will only be widely regarded as coups depending on who won? (I think the January 6 maybe-coup would be contentious regardless, but for others.)
If we were to step away from the word ‘coup’ for a second and be a bit more specific.
I would bet against there being any direct evidence in the aftermath of the 2028 election that Donald Trump or JD Vance (or whoever the GOP nominee is really) were aware of and actively assisting efforts to use organized violence to overturn election results. There’s probably some sort of evidentiary standard here for proving intent to participate in a conspiracy, which we could take from the courts, and assuming it analogized well that’s what I’d defer to.
I do agree with you this is a tough standard because to be fair if I were doing that my top priority would be ensuring I had plausible deniability.
My guess is that most people who think a coup is likely believe the same thing re: plausible deniability. So we’re stuck and I don’t see a way past that.
I think this is a tricky standard, because many maybe-coups will only be widely regarded as coups depending on who won? (I think the January 6 maybe-coup would be contentious regardless, but for others.)
If we were to step away from the word ‘coup’ for a second and be a bit more specific.
I would bet against there being any direct evidence in the aftermath of the 2028 election that Donald Trump or JD Vance (or whoever the GOP nominee is really) were aware of and actively assisting efforts to use organized violence to overturn election results. There’s probably some sort of evidentiary standard here for proving intent to participate in a conspiracy, which we could take from the courts, and assuming it analogized well that’s what I’d defer to.
I do agree with you this is a tough standard because to be fair if I were doing that my top priority would be ensuring I had plausible deniability.
My guess is that most people who think a coup is likely believe the same thing re: plausible deniability. So we’re stuck and I don’t see a way past that.