You need to specify whether your “random” is merely undetermined, or an undetermined pick from an equiprobable set. Only the latter allows you to equate most and most likely. But equiprobability isn’t a reasonable assumption, because the AIs we build will be guided by our aims and limited by our restrictions.
The MindSpace of the Orthogonality thesis is a set of possibilities. The random potshot version of the OT argument is only one way of turning possibilities into probabilities, and not particularly realistic. While, any of the minds in mindpsace are indeed weird and unfriendly to humans, that does not make it likely that the AIs we will construct will be. we are deliberately seeking to build certainties of mind for one thing, and have certain limitations, for another. Random potshots aren’t analogous to the probability density for action of building a certain type of AI, without knowing just ch about what it would be
You need to specify whether your “random” is merely undetermined, or an undetermined pick from an equiprobable set. Only the latter allows you to equate most and most likely. But equiprobability isn’t a reasonable assumption, because the AIs we build will be guided by our aims and limited by our restrictions.
The MindSpace of the Orthogonality thesis is a set of possibilities. The random potshot version of the OT argument is only one way of turning possibilities into probabilities, and not particularly realistic. While, any of the minds in mindpsace are indeed weird and unfriendly to humans, that does not make it likely that the AIs we will construct will be. we are deliberately seeking to build certainties of mind for one thing, and have certain limitations, for another. Random potshots aren’t analogous to the probability density for action of building a certain type of AI, without knowing just ch about what it would be