if you ask experts the probabilities of doom it ranges all the way from 99% to 0.0001 %.
What matters here is the chance that a particular model in a particular deployment plan will cause a particular catastrophe. And this is after the model has been trained and evaluated and redteamed and mech interped (imperfectly ofc). I don’t except such divergent probabilities from experts.
What matters here is the chance that a particular model in a particular deployment plan will cause a particular catastrophe. And this is after the model has been trained and evaluated and redteamed and mech interped (imperfectly ofc). I don’t except such divergent probabilities from experts.
Referring to particular models and particular deployment plans and particular catastrophe doesn’t help—the answer is the same.
We don’t know how to scientifically quantify any of these probabilities.