FWIW, I was always concerned about people trying to make long-horizon forecast predictions because they assumed superforecasting would extrapolate beyond the sub-1-year predictions that were tested.
As an alternative, that’s why I wrote about strategic foresight to focus on robust plans rather than trying to accurately predict the actual scenario.
FWIW, I was always concerned about people trying to make long-horizon forecast predictions because they assumed superforecasting would extrapolate beyond the sub-1-year predictions that were tested.
As an alternative, that’s why I wrote about strategic foresight to focus on robust plans rather than trying to accurately predict the actual scenario.