Just want to add some context. I’m not going to respond to the specific arguments here, but I want to clarify a few things:
As I wrote in the original post, the app (that I vibecoded in 10min)’s sole purpose was to illustrate the concept of comparative advantage: “This doesn’t cover wages, income tax implications, or other important things—it’s only to explain comparative advantage.” It was a quick sketch to explain a single economic principle, not a comprehensive thesis on AGI.
Nor did I claim this was sufficient or all there is, which the post implies in places. CA has nothing to do with “keep[ing] the biosphere alive”. Hopefully will make my views clearer in a future piece, as well as why I think the post gets some stuff wrong (including still misunderstanding CA).
Also I’m not the ‘lead on the Google DeepMind governance team’ either.
I changed it to ‘lead for frontier policy at Google DeepMind’.
To be fair, this post has two parts:
Directly addressing your points
Addressing other arguments against RCA or making general counterarguments, some of which you didn’t make
I can see that the second part seems a bit unfair to you and is probably not helpful in trying to convince you here. I have seen people literally making the point that RCA means we are totally fine.
I do however still think that RCA totally does not apply here, maybe I am wrong and there will be some transition period where it briefly applies, but I really don’t see even that argument at the moment. Currently humans have an absolute advantage at a shrinking number of tasks which keeps us employed for the moment.
Just want to add some context. I’m not going to respond to the specific arguments here, but I want to clarify a few things:
As I wrote in the original post, the app (that I vibecoded in 10min)’s sole purpose was to illustrate the concept of comparative advantage: “This doesn’t cover wages, income tax implications, or other important things—it’s only to explain comparative advantage.” It was a quick sketch to explain a single economic principle, not a comprehensive thesis on AGI.
Nor did I claim this was sufficient or all there is, which the post implies in places. CA has nothing to do with “keep[ing] the biosphere alive”. Hopefully will make my views clearer in a future piece, as well as why I think the post gets some stuff wrong (including still misunderstanding CA).
Also I’m not the ‘lead on the Google DeepMind governance team’ either.
I changed it to ‘lead for frontier policy at Google DeepMind’.
To be fair, this post has two parts:
Directly addressing your points
Addressing other arguments against RCA or making general counterarguments, some of which you didn’t make
I can see that the second part seems a bit unfair to you and is probably not helpful in trying to convince you here. I have seen people literally making the point that RCA means we are totally fine.
I do however still think that RCA totally does not apply here, maybe I am wrong and there will be some transition period where it briefly applies, but I really don’t see even that argument at the moment. Currently humans have an absolute advantage at a shrinking number of tasks which keeps us employed for the moment.
If you read my post as uncharitable and have 40 minutes to spare, you may read The tale of the Top Tier intellect by Yud.